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Excerpt from amp.scmp.com
Many treacherous hazards confront statecraft, as the United States and Europe well know. China will face challenges in Iraq that are the result of antagonisms that have deepened over the past few centuries. The late US statesman Henry Kissinger wrote in 2014 that in the Middle East “political, sectarian, tribal, territorial, ideological, and traditional national interest disputes merge”.Today, the war in Gaza promises an impossible outcome. Throughout the Middle East, there have been flare-ups of terrorist activity in societies roiled by deep-seated religious tensions that unstable governments cannot defuse. Gulf countries are rising in power and ambition as they assert their independence.
China isn’t absolved from these difficulties by stressing neutrality and dialogue facilitation while keeping its distance from local groups. As its involvement in Iraq deepens and the dilemmas multiply, President Xi Jinping’s efforts will be compromised and possibly rebuffed. How can China succeed if it doesn’t take sides with local actors?