Xi had been escalating the trade war with the U.S. by attempting to use its rare earth monopoly to separate market allies from the U.S. Trump’s response of a 100% rise in tariffs raised the cost of China’s potential response significantly. After the fourth plenum, Xi is now ready to formalize a ceasefire with Trump at the APEC Summit. The seeming pullback from the brink is seen by some experts as a sign that Xi’s bellicose policy towards the U.S. has been checked by a weakness from within after the fourth plenum. It would seem the Generals may have been replaced BECAUSE of their loyalty to Xi, not their failure to protect him.
The Trump-Xi trade truce on rare earth stability represents a pivotal moment in rare earth diplomacy, but understanding its true significance requires examining China’s entrenched position across critical minerals supply chains. Beyond the headlines of temporary détente lies a complex web of processing dominance that extends far deeper than raw material extraction.
China’s market control spans multiple critical stages of rare earth production. The nation processes approximately 92% of global rare earth elements, while maintaining 87% of permanent magnet manufacturing capacity. This processing monopoly creates bottlenecks that no diplomatic agreement can immediately resolve, as Western manufacturers have discovered during recent supply chain disruptions.
The lithium sector reveals similar patterns of concentration. Chinese companies control 65% of global lithium processing capacity, with facilities in Chile, Australia, and domestic operations handling the majority of battery-grade lithium carbonate production. Furthermore, this innovative lithium extraction processing dominance means that even lithium extracted in Western nations often requires Chinese refining before reaching battery manufacturers.
Industry Reality: Processing infrastructure represents the true chokepoint in critical minerals supply chains, not raw material access.
Cobalt refining demonstrates another dimension of Chinese market control. The nation handles 72% of cobalt refining operations, processing material primarily sourced from Democratic Republic of Congo mines. Consequently, this global cobalt mining vertical integration strategy allows Chinese companies to control pricing and allocation across multiple battery metals simultaneously.
Market Dynamics Beyond Raw Materials
The rare earth sector’s complexity extends beyond simple mining statistics. China’s strategic advantage lies in its integrated supply chains that span from ore processing to finished magnet production. Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets, essential for electric vehicles and wind turbines, require specialised metallurgical expertise that takes decades to develop.
Chinese processing facilities benefit from economies of scale that Western competitors struggle to match. The Baotou region alone processes over 100,000 tonnes of rare earth concentrates annually, more than the combined capacity of all non-Chinese facilities worldwide. This scale advantage translates into cost efficiencies of 30-40% compared to alternative suppliers.
Separation technology represents another critical barrier to market diversification. The chemical processes required to separate individual rare earth elements from mixed concentrates involve proprietary technologies developed over decades. China’s solvent extraction capabilities can achieve purities exceeding 99.99%, while many Western facilities struggle to reach 99.5% purity levels consistently.
Trump-Xi Trade Truce Delivers Rare Earth Supply Stability Discovery Alert
from news.google.com