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Russian forces in Ukraine are suffering casualties at more than 400,000 per year — enough to pack the house at the world’s four largest stadiums. Losses like these have been fuel for simultaneous talk of inevitable Russian defeat or victory in the public conversation.
What should we make of this talk? Can Russian forces sustain similar losses in its ongoing war in Ukraine and rebuild to fight another day? The likely answer is “yes,” and it speaks to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approach toward negotiations to end the war. In refusing to agree to an unconditional ceasefire and skipping the latest peace talks in Turkey, Putin is playing for time — because time appears to be on his side.
While Russia could run out of quality recruits, force replenishment through 2024 was far more successful than many predicted. In April of that year, NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Gen. Christopher Cavoli observed that “Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested. The army is actually now larger — by 15 percent — than it was when it invaded Ukraine.” Whether Russia can maintain its ability to reconstitute and even grow its forces as its war in Ukraine progresses remains uncertain. More certain is its advantage over Ukraine in terms of total population, with nearly four times as many people and roughly 18.9 million males aged 20–39 relative to Ukraine’s fewer than five million males of that age. Russia can lose three times as many troops as Ukraine and still suffer less in relative terms.
