Red Sea Watch

Central to this escalating conflict is Ethiopia’s port deal with Somaliland—a potential lifeline for the embattled landlocked nation that could reduce its economic dependency on Djibouti, where almost all of Ethiopia’s maritime trade flows. As Ethiopia pivots toward Somaliland, it risks unravelling its long-standing economic ties with Djibouti and provoking opposition from Somalia and Egypt.

The deal, signed in January, grants Ethiopia significant access to Somaliland’s port infrastructure in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence—a move Addis Ababa has branded a “natural right.” Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has emphasized the existential importance of maritime access for his country, even suggesting that Ethiopia would use force to defend this access if necessary.

However, the deal comes at a cost. Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its sovereign territory, has condemned the agreement as illegal, igniting a diplomatic firestorm. The Somali Federal Government quickly moved to bolster its alliances with Egypt and Eritrea, positioning itself as a bulwark against Ethiopia’s growing ambitions.