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In the both the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections, Donald Trump cynically but effectively adopted the mantle of the anti-war candidate, accusing his rivals of a dangerous commitment to a policy of regime-change wars that threatened to usher in a new era of wars—and perhaps World War III. In October 2024, he specifically rejected the idea of regime change in Iran, saying, “We can’t get totally involved in all that. We can’t run ourselves, let’s face it.” In his Inaugural address in January, Trump promised to be a “a peacemaker” who would “stop all wars and bring a new spirit of unity to a world that has been angry, violent, and totally unpredictable.” In a major foreign policy address in Saudi Arabia in May, Trump reiterated his oft-repeated critique of “Western interventionalists [sic]” and “neocons” who have tried to remake the Middle East in America’s image.
As I’ve repeatedly argued, while Trump’s words are a salutary rejection of the hubris of the bipartisan foreign policy elite, there’s little in Trump’s record to show that he knows how to redirect American foreign policy toward a more peaceful direction. Quite the reverse is true: Trump’s own limitations as a leader—his fickleness, lack of deep commitments, and desire to placate different factions in his political coalition—make him an easy prey to militarists who want to push for new conflicts. The current outbreak of hostilities against Iran initiated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a clear case in point.
Trump gave the green light to Israel’s attack on Iran, which started on Friday. These attacks have led to open salivation by Netanyahu and leading congressional Republicans such as Ted Cruz at the prospect of regime change in Iran. They have derailed, as they were intended to do, Trump’s ongoing push for a nuclear deal with Iran. They also threaten to drag the United States into an escalating Middle Eastern war—something Trump has repeatedly promised to avoid.
