April 30, 2026

Iran Watch

News Source
EXCERPT:

President Trump says Iran is “in a State of Collapse” and wants the Strait of Hormuz opened “as soon as possible” while talks continue.

That is the pressure point right now: Tehran wants relief, global energy markets want the waterway open, and the U.S. blockade is still being used as leverage.

Fox News highlighted Trump’s latest comments Tuesday afternoon:

Axios put Trump’s Tuesday claim in the larger negotiating picture:

Trump said Iran had told the United States it wanted the Strait of Hormuz opened quickly while it worked through a leadership crisis. The key caveat is that Tehran has not publicly confirmed Trump’s version of the message, so the claim still sits inside a live diplomatic standoff rather than a settled public agreement.

President Trump has rejected the latest proposal by Iran to continue the ceasefire, which seems to be de facto over. The Supreme Leader has allegedly emerged and promised to free the Strait of Hormuz from U.S. presence. The progressive media is casting doubts on U.S. power while Trump’s base buckles in its support for the war.

Iran’s Missing ‘Supreme Leader,’ in Written Message, Vows ‘Future Free of America’ for Strait of Hormuz www.breitbart.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

The alleged, but missing, “supreme leader” of Iran Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly issued a written message on Thursday declaring that his country will impose a “new legal framework and management system for the Strait of Hormuz” that will result in a future “free of America” in the waterway.

Khamenei’s message declared the Strait, in which Iran has for over a month attempted to endanger commercial traffic, a “divine blessing” for his nation that the Islamist terror regime takes seriously. His statement, issued on the occasion of Iran’s “National Persian Gulf Day,” also contained a commitment to continue the regime’s illicit nuclear development — the main issue that the administration of President Donald Trump is seeking to settle with Iran.

The message follows weeks of attempts to end hostilities between Iran and America that began on February 28, when the Pentagon launched Operation Epic Fury and killed Khamenei’s father, longtime brutal dictator Ali Khamenei. President Trump announced a ceasefire this month that was initially intended to last two weeks, but has since been extended indefinitely. In public statements on his website, Truth Social, President Trump has explained that the extension was necessary given the large number of senior leaders in the Iranian regime that have been killed, resulting in unclear leadership and an intense power struggle within the terror state’s government apparatus. Iranian officials have attempted to deny the discord among their ranks but also have not at press time been able to organize a coherent response to the White House’s attempts to construct a long-lasting peace agreement.

News Source
EXCERPT:

Beyond the bubble of hardened MAGA cultists and a smattering of elite pundits, the joint American-Israeli war on Iran announced by a somnolent President Trump on February 28 is widely regarded as a pointless fiasco that is doing incalculable and growing damage to the global economy. The fact that the president once again unilaterally extended the ceasefire with Iran last week means that he still has no credible ideas about how to get traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz. He’s similarly flummoxed when it comes to imposing America’s settlement terms on an emboldened regime in Tehran—despite his constant insistence that the war has resulted in an unprecedented, monumental American victory.

Regardless of if or when Trump’s crack negotiating team featuring zero Iran experts returns to Islamabad to meet with Tehran’s delegation, the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is untenable. Oil prices are creeping up again after dropping on President Trump’s flurry of hallucinatory statements on April 17 proclaiming that the war would be wrapping up soon. The end was inevitably near, Trump insisted, because Iran had agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz, forgo the ability to enrich uranium forever and relinquish its stockpile of what the president with almost child-like wonder calls “nuclear dust.”

News Source
EXCERPT:

70 structures. 11 US military bases overseas. Seven countries. $5 billion in damage.

The damage inflicted by Iranian forces on American and allied bases in the Middle East during the opening weeks of Operation Epic Fury will have substantial financial consequences. Not only will America’s now-degraded forward troop presence change as a result, but the deliberations over what to rebuild will be time-consuming and highly consequential.

After rebuilding and repairs, US military force posture across Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq is likely to shift locations, and shrink in the Gulf overall. Given the way in which the war in Iran has revealed America’s shallow munitions stockpiles and limited air defenses, the remaining open question for US allies and partners is: Are US bases still a net benefit to their security? The implications for force planning and modernization could see major disruptions depending on how the US and Gulf governments answer this question.

Country Base Estimated Damage
Bahrain 5th Fleet Headquarters 2 SATCOM terminals, 2 radomes, and 3 large warehouses
Iraq Erbil Military Base 1 storage building
Jordan Muwaffaq Salti Air Base 1 general administrative building
Kuwait Ali Al Salem Air Base 3 hangars, parts of the runway, 15 small warehouses, 1 maintenance shed
Kuwait Camp Arifjan 6 radomes, 4 small and large warehouses, 1 general administrative building, 1 maintenance shed
Kuwait Camp Buehring 1 SATCOM terminal, 1 hanger, 4 small and large warehouses
Kuwait Shuaiba Port 1 general administrative building
Qatar Al Udeid Air Base Parts of the runway
Saudi Arabia Prince Sultan Air Base 1 small warehouse, 1 radome
UAE Al Dhafra Air Base 2 general administrative buildings, 2 small hangars, 1 medical clinic, 6 fuel storages, 1 barracks
UAE Al Ruwais Military Base 5 small warehouses, 2 general administrative buildings
Source: Author’s analysis.

News Source
EXCERPT:

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took aim at the realities facing the United States in its war against Iran. Speaking to students in Marsberg, the German head of state did not hold back, stating that the “entire nation is being humiliated” by Iran.

When the war first broke out, Merz backed Trump and his actions in Iran, saying the U.S. was doing the dirty work for the world. Now, with the war dragging on, he is sharply changing his tune as his approval drops to rock-bottom support levels.

The chancellor specifically noted the role of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in putting the U.S. in its current predicament. He also took issue with having started the war, thinking it would be an easy win. And America, he made clear, should have learned from its own history by now from other failed wars.

News Source
EXCERPT:

Friedrich Merz says Washington has “no convincing strategy” in talks with Tehran

The US lacks a coherent negotiation strategy and is being “humiliated” by Iran, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Monday.

Merz made the remarks as the vital Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most shipping, driving up global energy prices.

“The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected, and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either,” Merz said during a visit to a school in Marsberg, North Rhine-Westphalia.

“The problem with conflicts like this is always that you don’t just have to get in – you also have to get out again. We saw that very painfully in Afghanistan for 20 years. We saw it in Iraq,” the chancellor said, according to Deutsche Welle.

News Source
EXCERPT:

Iran is proposing to lift its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz without tackling its nuclear programme, two regional officials familiar with the offer said Monday, as the country’s foreign minister travelled to Russia in what he described as an opportunity to consult with Moscow about the conflict with Israel and the United States.

Iran also seeks the US to lift its blockade of the country as part of its proposal, said the two officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the private negotiations. The fresh proposal, delivered to the United States through Pakistan, is unlikely to gain support from US President Donald Trump, who insists on ending Iran’s atomic programme as part of a comprehensive deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and secure a permanent ceasefire.

“We have all the cards. If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us,” Trump told Fox News Channel on Sunday.

The Axios news outlet first reported Iran’s proposal. Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in St Petersburg on Monday morning ahead of a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. His weekend trip has included two stops in Pakistan and a visit to Oman, which shares the strait with Iran.

News Source
EXCERPT:

ISLAMABAD — ISLAMABAD (AP) — Iran ‘s foreign minister briefly visited Islamabad again on Sunday as Pakistan’s political and military leadership scrambled to reignite ceasefire negotiations between Tehran and Washington, but President Donald Trump said they could talk by phone instead.

Abbas Araghchi had left Pakistan’s capital late the previous day, creating confusion around an expected second round of talks there, but he returned before continuing on to Moscow on Sunday, Iranian state media said. He had been in Oman, which previously mediated talks and is on the other side of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

The White House last week said it would dispatch envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad to follow up on historic face-to-face talks earlier this month. But shortly after Araghchi’s departure Saturday, Trump said he had called off the mission because of a lack of progress with Iran.

“If they want, we can talk but we’re not sending people,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. He said earlier on social media: “All they have to do is call!!!”

News Source
EXCERPT:

Global markets are entering the week balancing resilient risk appetite against renewed geopolitical strain as prospects of U.S.-Iran negotiations took a hit over the weekend.

U.S. President Donald Trump scrapped plans to send envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad for talks with Iran on Saturday, citing “tremendous infighting and confusion” within Tehran’s leadership.

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi made a brief return to Islamabad on Sunday as Pakistan’s leaders pushed to revive ceasefire talks between Tehran and Washington, though Trump said discussions could instead take place over phone. Araghchi has reportedly departed Islamabad for Moscow.

Iran has offered a new proposal to the U.S. for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while shelving nuclear talks to a later date, Axios reported, citing a U.S. official and two sources with knowledge of the matter.

News Source
EXCERPT:

Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen publicly since the start of the war with the US, with reports emerging that he was seriously injured in an airstrike last month

Iran’s new supreme leader has not been seen in public since the outbreak of war with the US, with reports emerging that his face was so severely burnt in an airstrike that he requires plastic surgery.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has neither been spotted nor released any audio or video message since assuming power. According to reports, he sustained serious injuries in an airstrike on 28 February.

The US and Iran have been engaged in conflict since late February, after joint US-Israeli forces launched strikes on several key Iranian targets. Iran hit back by attacking sites across the region and shutting the vital Strait of Hormuz trade route.

The New York Times reported that while Khamenei was gravely wounded, he remains mentally sharp and engaged, according to four senior Iranian officials with knowledge of his condition.

News Source
EXCERPT:

Mike Huckabee, the US envoy to Israel, who was on hand for the White House talks, said the “people of Lebanon, the people of Israel are neighbours and they want to get along”.

“They can get along,” he said.

“But it’s like neighbours who have a rough little kid living in the neighbourhood who keeps throwing rocks at everybody’s window.

“And if the kid will quit throwing rocks, the neighbours can get along and start actually working together.”

News Source
EXCERPT:

Core inflation in Japan accelerated for the first time in five months, rising to 1.8% in March as Iran war-fueled higher energy prices stoke consumer inflation.

Government data showed the inflation figure — which strips out prices of fresh food — was in line with the 1.8% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and was higher than the 1.6% seen in February

Headline inflation came in at 1.5%, compared with 1.3% in February, staying below the central bank’s 2% target for a second straight month.

The so-called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of both food and energy, dipped to 2.4% from February’s 2.5%, marking its lowest level since October 2024.

President Donald Trump announced there was no hurry to finalize a peace deal with the Iranian regime. He has extended the ceasefire indefinitely. For more news on Iran, read our Deep Dive Report on pg. 2.

The President also announced the Lebanon ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has been extended for three more weeks.

Middle East crisis live: Trump says Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks but claims he won’t rush Iran deal | US-Israel war on Iran www.theguardian.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

Here’s a snapshot of the latest Middle East news to bring you up to speed.

  • Donald Trump has announced that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon would be extended by three weeks. Trump, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office alongside the participants in the meeting, said he hoped the two countries’ leaders would meet during the additional three-week cessation of hostilities.

  • When he was asked how long he was willing to wait for a long-term peace deal with Iran, he replied: “Don’t rush me”.

  • The US president had earlier ordered the US navy to “shoot and kill” small Iranian boats that deploy mines in the strait of Hormuz and claimed that US minesweepers “are clearing the strait right now” amid the standoff over the key waterway. US special forces earlier boarded a stateless oil tanker in the Indian Ocean which the Pentagon claimed was carrying Iranian crude oil, ratcheting up the standoff with Tehran over the strait.

  • Trump said the US had “hit about 75% of our targets” in Iran and that a deal had not yet been reached because Iran’s leadership was “in turmoil”.

  • Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said there were no “hardliners” or “moderates” in Iran, responding to the Trump claim of internal division in Iran’s leadership. Separately, Iran’s foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, said Iranian state institutions “continue to act with unity, purpose and discipline”.

After the Secretary of the Navy, John Phelan, was suddenly dismissed by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, President Donald Trump issued a new shoot-on-sight order to the Navy. The move has man wondering if the now-former Secretary was dismissed for refusing to follow that same order.

Trump Gives Navy a Shoot-on-Sight Order a Day After Firing its Leader www.westernjournal.com
News Source
EXCERPT:

A day after former Navy Secretary John Phelan was dismissed, President Donald Trump revealed he had given the Navy a major set of new orders.

The White House officially announced Wednesday that Phelan was leaving his post, but Fox News reported that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth had fired Phelan.

It was unclear if there was any connection between Phelan’s departure and Trump’s Thursday post, in which he said he issued an order that could lead to the Navy firing on Iranian vessels.

“I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

“There is to be no hesitation,” Trump wrote.

“Additionally, our mine ‘sweepers’ are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level!” Trump added.