AfD remain on course for record result in YouGov’s second MRP model of the 2025 German election – YouGov
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Excerpt:
Germany’s parliamentary election is now just two-and-a-half weeks away, and YouGov’s second MRP of the campaign shows the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remain on course for the best result in post-war Germany for a party to the right of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU).
Our model’s central estimate projects the AfD will finish in second place, with 142 of the 630 seats in the Bundestag, as well as winning 20% of the vote. This would be roughly double the 10% they won in 2021 and matches the 20% estimated by our first MRP three weeks ago.
Nonetheless, the conservative CDU/CSU retain a clear lead on 29% of the vote (-1 compared to the first MRP) and are projected to win 207 seats.
There’s been no improvement from our first projection for the two centre-left governing parties, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, with YouGov’s second MRP model placing them on 15% and 13% of the vote respectively.
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