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Since launching its sweeping offensive in November 2023, the Arakan Army (AA) has positioned itself to seize its home state, Rakhine, from the Myanmar military. On the eastern fringe of the Bay of Bengal, Rakhine has made international headlines as the site of the 2017 Rohingya genocide and the host to major Indian and Chinese infrastructure projects. The impact of Rakhine’s fall for those issues has been well-explored elsewhere. Less examined is how AA allies in southwest Myanmar have mobilized to support their patron, the AA, and how the group could shape the wider conflict. Although the AA is an avowedly ethnonationalist rebel group primarily interested in self-determination for Rakhine, it has expressed solidarity with the broader anti-junta movement and built up an extensive network of allies within it.
The axis that has emerged as a result has enabled the AA to expand its influence close to India in Chin State, threaten the military’s industrial base in Magway and Bago regions, and endanger the junta’s grip on the rice bowl of Ayeyarwady Region. As of early 2025, the AA is now the premier benefactor of insurgent activity in the southwest, with at least 17 groups and likely far more that have fought alongside and in parallel to the AA in Rakhine, Chin, Bago, Magway, and Ayeyarwady. This has greatly threatened the junta, complicated the AA’s relationship with the National Unity Government (NUG), and further entrenched its place in Chin state. Through these alliances, the AA has the power to greatly impact the trajectory of Myanmar’s civil war.
