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During a June 17 speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, U.S. Pacific Fleet commander Adm. Steve Koehler declared that despite an ongoing campaign of intimidation against its smaller neighbors in the South China Sea, “China’s pressure is not working well. It has failed to intimidate Southeast Asian claimants and make them surrender their sovereign rights.”
Koehler detailed examples of Chinese harassment and violence over the last year against Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and especially the Philippines, but noted that in each case, the Southeast Asian states have refused to back down. The admiral echoed this assessment the following month in a speech in Manila on the anniversary of the Philippines’ 2016 arbitral victory in The Hague, which ruled most of Beijing’s maritime claims in the South China Sea illegal.
That China is faltering might surprise casual observers of the South China Sea disputes, but it matches the available evidence. China’s efforts to establish control over the sea have plateaued over the last four years. That came after nearly a decade of steady gains. The strategy that won Beijing control over much of the body of water, despite the illegality of its claims, was centered on a campaign of intimidation and non-lethal force, often dubbed “gray zone” coercion. That campaign is no longer working but the Xi Jinping regime is unwilling, and likely unable, to accept that reality and seek compromise with its Southeast Asian neighbors. The result is a dangerous cycle of brinksmanship, but one that is not delivering results for Beijing. To help Southeast Asian partners, especially the Philippines, remain resilient and deter Beijing from military escalation, the United States should follow through with plans to strengthen force posture and support the military modernization of partners in the region.