Deep Dive – May 2026: Midterm is Coming – A Report on the 2026 Elections

Originally published May 29, 2026 for our weekly Issue of Mindful Intelligence Advisor.  Subscribe to get weekly issues.

By Paul Gordon Collier, Editor

“Maybe you do not care much about the future of the Republican Party. You should. Conservatives will always be with us. If conservatives become convinced that they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. They will reject democracy.” – David Frum, Trumpocracy: The Corruption of the American Republic

“Hold on, my friends, to the Constitution and to the Republic for which it stands. Miracles do not cluster and what has happened once in 6,000 years, may not happen again. Hold on to the Constitution, for if the American Constitution should fail, there will be anarchy throughout the world.” – Daniel Webster

INTRODUCTION

The month of May featured the full fallout of the April 29, 2026, ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court on the Voting Rights Act. Numerous states held primaries in the month of May as well. Between these two storylines, Election 2026 was easily the top trending news tag of May.

This Deep Dive looks at election 2026 happenings this month, starting with the SCOTUS ruling fallout, and an analysis of the key races and trends we should be looking at in the November 2026 elections.

1. GERRYMANDERING WARS

As of right now, the Republicans are theoretically up about 9 seats in the gerrymandering wars, but that’s subject to more legal battles being played out over the next two months. The momentum is still with the Republicans in the gerrymandering wars, and that is entirely thanks to the SCOTUS ruling at the end of April 2026.

1. HOW WE GOT HERE – On April 29, 2026, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that race-created voting districts were unconstitutional. The ruling was 6-3. It set off a firestorm of gerrymandering wars that had begun before the ruling.

The Democrats look poised to at least neutralize any efforts by the Republicans to gerrymander their way to victory, and then the SCOTUS ruling dropped. After this ruling, the Democrats find themselves behind the curve, but a couple recent rulings might rejuvenate their chances.

2. LATEST – Since the ruling, Republicans have attempted to pass new districts with some successes and some failures, while Democrats met with one major defeat in Virginia. Democrats have less gerrymandering margins than Republicans do. While that gap existed before the ruling, the Republicans’ opportunities for gerrymandering greatly increased AFTER the ruling, while the Democrats’ opportunities were greatly diminished.

2.1. ALABAMA – Alabama’s new GOP-created map was struck down by a Federal Court. Their arguments for doing so seem to directly contradict the SCOTUS ruling. They ruled the law does not explicitly justify the creation of black districts, nor that the creation of a black district is a justified remedy to come into compliance with the Voter Rights Act.

Nevertheless, the new map is suspended until SCOTUS rules. It is unclear if they will rule in time for the November 2026 election.

2.2. CALIFORNIA – The Democrats have successfully passed new gerrymandering maps after a referendum in 2025 that is unaffected by the SCOTUS ruling. This means the Democrats will gain a plus six seat advantage in the 2026 elections from California alone.

2.3. FLORIDA – The Republicans passed a new congressional map expected to net four seats for the GOP. A Florida Judge struck down an effort to block the new map, making it more likely it will be in effect for the November 2026 election.

2.4. LOUISIANA – Republican Governor Jeff Landy used an executive order to postpone congressional primaries to allow the legislature to create a new map.

2.5. MISSOURI – The Republicans have passed a new map that doesn’t appear to increase GOP seats by more than one, but it increases safe GOP seats. It was recently approved by the State Supreme Court.

2.6. NEW YORK – Efforts by the Democrats to get rid of one GOP seat were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, preserving the seat for the GOP in 2026, at least.

2.7. NORTH CAROLINA – The GOP’s new map is now firmly in place for 2026, giving the GOP one more seat.

2.8. OHIO – The Republican’s new map here will most likely produce two GOP seats. A major federal challenge to the map was withdrawn in 2026.

2.9. SOUTH CAROLINA – While the GOP State House passed a new map that would have eliminated the one “black district” left in the state, the Senate failed to pass it thanks to 12 GOP State Senators, all of which now have a bullseye on them for their next primary.

2.10. TENNESSEE – The Republicans gain one seat in Tennessee. While the map still faces legal challenges, it is unlikely to be altered before the November 2026 election.

2.11. TEXAS – After SCOTUS upheld Texas’ new map, the GOP expects to gain 5 seats in Texas, which also includes the elimination of two far-left progressive firebrands, Al Green and Jasmine Crockett.

2.12. VIRGINIA – What began with great promise for the Democrats has ended with no gain whatsoever in their gerrymandering war bid.

While they were successful in passing a new map through the legislature and through popular referendum, their seeming disregard for procedure made it all but impossible for the state’s highest court to affirm it.

The Democrats hoped to gain four seats through their redrawn map.

1. MAY’S ELECTION RESULTS

These are the bellwether results of key primary races in the month of May.

1. HOUSE PRIMARIES

1.1. KENTUCKY – Donald Trump’s greatest GOP detractor in the U.S. House will not be coming back in 2027. Thomas Massie lost his re-election bid to his Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein. Massie represents numerous Trump opponents in the GOP who faced a reckoning in their own party’s primary.

1.2. GEORGIA – Donald Trump stayed out of the 10^th district U.S. House race in Georgia. It is an open seat this year after incumbent Mike Collins chose to run for the U.S. Senate, leaving his office behind.

1.3. PENNSYLVANIA – The Democratic Governor of PA, Josh Shapiro, saw a number of the candidates he backed decisively win their primaries.  He focused on GOP-held seats that are vulnerable, meaning the party faithfully trusted his choices to beat Republican incumbents.

1.4. TEXAS – The Democrat who likes to submit impeachment papers against President Trump, Al Green, will not be returning to congress in 2027. He lost his primary bid decisively.

2. SENATE PRIMARIES

2.1. ALABAMA – The GOP still has no nominee in Alabama to replace incumbent Senator Tommy Tuberville, who is now running for governor. No candidate achieved a 50% majority, meaning a runoff election will happen June 16, 2026. The two top vote-getters were Barry Moore, with 39.2% of the vote, and Jared Hudson, who secured 25.6% of the vote.

Barry Moore was endorsed by Trump in January, ahead of the May 19 primary. The latest poll shows a dead heat, with Hudson at 41% and Moore at 40%. 18% were undecided.

2.2. GEORGIA – The Democrat incumbent, John Ossoff, easily won his primary election having won unopposed. On the GOP side, Trump-endorsed Mike Collins failed to secure a majority win.

He scored first with 40.5% of the vote. Second place was Derek Dooley at 30.2%. The runoff election is scheduled for June 16. So far, Collins has maintained a lead as low as 5% and as high as 17%.

2.3. LOUISIANA – Another anti-Trump GOP Senator was sent packing. This one, Bill Cassidy, had voted to convict Trump during his first term. During Trump’s second term Cassidy continues to vote against Trump’s agenda.

No candidate secured a majority vote. Cassidy finished outside the top two, in third. The run-off is between Trump-endorsed Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming.

2.4. TEXAS – John Cornyn joined the growing list of the anti-Trump GOP that saw themselves rejected by the GOP electorate in the primaries. Cornyn lost to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by more than 30 points. The race was called five minutes after the polls were closed. Paxton was endorsed by Trump.

1. SENATE ANALYSIS

The key U.S. Senate races in the 2026 Midterms are clearly Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. The Democrats hold two of these seats, the Republicans the other five. Georgia might be the bellwether of all the races, though Michigan might be a close second.

1. GEORGIA – Any hope the Democrats have of taking the Senate begins in Georgia. The Democratic incumbent, John Ossoff, is already in a purple state. Trump won Georgia by only 2.2 points in 2024. The GOP Primary runoff is in June, with the Trump-endorsed candidate favored to win.

The battleground for statewide Georgia is the suburbs, where issues like abortion, LGBTQ rights, and anti-immigration are favored by white suburban upper middle-class women. The Democrats’ cultural program appeals to white suburban women.

2. MAINE – The Maine U.S. Senate nomination of far-left and alleged antisemitic radical Graham Platner by the Democratic Party has moved this Republican-held seat from a toss-up to leans Republican.

The incumbent, Susan Collins, is considered a “RINO”, a Republican in name only, for consistently voting against the GOP agenda whenever her vote is needed most.

A hold here is merely to prevent the Democrats from holding a Senate majority.

3. MICHIGAN – The incumbent, Democrat Gary Peters, is retiring at the end of his term here. This is an open seat in a purple state. This is the best chance the GOP has to assure they hold a Senate majority.

The Republicans have all-but nominated former U.S. representative Mike Rogers, who faces minimal resistance in the primary field. On the Democrat side, there is a three-person race. In polling between Rogers and other democrats, he leads by 5-10 points.

4. NORTH CAROLINA – The GOP incumbent, Thom Tillis, announced he would not be running for re-election, allowing the former Democratic North Carolina Governor, Roy Cooper, to step in. He holds a 9–11-point lead over the GOP nominee, Michael Watley, the current RNC Chairman. This looks to be a Democratic pickup, though they will need more than this to take a majority.
5. OHIO – The GOP’s incumbent, Jon Husted, was appointed in 2025 to fill a vacancy. In the primary, he ran uncontested. He will face off against the Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown, who served in the U.S. Senate from 2007-2025. He won his primary with ease.

The main issue in Ohio appears to be healthcare, according to weekly polls. The polls consistently show Husted in the lead, but not by more than five points, and on average only two.

6. TEXAS – The GOP incumbent, John Cornyn, lost a decisive primary run-off to Trump endorsed Ken Paxton, the current Attorney General of Texas. Paxton will face off against James Talarico, a self-described “progressive Christian,” who defeated far-left firebrand Jasmine Crocket with ease in his primary.

Crocket is a U.S. House representative who will not be returning in 2027 because her district was eliminated by Texas’ new map.

Analysts put this race in leans GOP, but I believe this will be a secure seat for the GOP.

If there was any truth to the blue Texas hype, the GOP’s chances of holding the Senate would be slim to none.

1. HOUSE ANALYSIS

This analysis focuses on the key bellwether states for the 2026 U.S. Congressional midterm elections. They are listed in alphabetical order, though the state that should be first will be listed alphabetically last.

That state is Pennsylvania, where the Republicans must hold three vulnerable seats. Should the Democrats sweep all three, the chances for a GOP majority plummet.

This analysis focuses on vulnerable GOP seats. While there are vulnerable Democrat seats, the Republican-held ones represent more of a bellwether for how well the Republicans might do against the Democrats in those similarly contested seats.

Two underlying themes emerge in these races, the suburban white woman vote, and the popular candidate overcoming Democrat branding vote. The Democrats are playing on cultural issues where the suburban vote is at play, while offering moderate voices behind popular faces where the suburban vote is not at play.

Donald Trump may help you win in primaries, but in these purple districts, he’s at best a slight advantage to the GOP candidate, but mostly he is a slight impediment. Yet if the GOP candidate seeks to alienate themselves from Trump, they risk alienating their own GOP voters, who simply won’t show up.

1. ARIZONA – The Republicans hold two U.S. House seats in Arizona that are at risk of flipping to Democrat, the 1^st and the 6^th. In the 1^st district, incumbent David Schweikert’s resignation puts the seat at play in an already purple district. The 1^st district is in the category of leans Republican while the 6^th is a toss-up.

In the 6^th district, the GOP’s incumbent is Juan Ciscomani, who runs on a strong borders platform. The Democrats are hoping to defeat him by reaching white suburban women with progressive cultural issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights.

Of the two districts, they Democrats have the best chance to flip the 6^th district, though they have a contested field facing Ciscomani in the July 21 primaries.

2. CALIFORNIA – One Republican-held seat in California is at risk of flipping to the Democrats, the 22^nd District. In the 22^nd, Incumbent David Valadao is facing a more progressive district after redistricting efforts in 2025. Valadao is the last surviving Republican in the House that voted to impeach President Trump. The Democrats hold a slight edge in polls.
3. COLORADO – The 8^th District of Colorado was flipped from Democrat to Republican in 2024. The Democrats hope to flip it back in 2026. The primary is June 30, 2026. The incumbent is Gabe Evans, who is running mostly unopposed in his upcoming June primary. His Democrat challenger remains undetermined, with three people leading a packed field in the June primary.

There is little polling data, so given the closeness of the last election, this one is in the toss-up category.

4. MICHIGAN – There are two districts at risk of flipping to Democrat in 2026, the 7^th and 10^th districts. The primaries are August 4, 2026. The 7^th was flipped from Democrat to Republican in 2024, with Tom Barrett now representing the district for the Republicans.

The Republicans’ incumbent, John James, has chosen the race for Governor over U.S. congress, leaving the race open for challengers. There are no clear front runners on either side of what promises to be a toss-up race no matter who wins their party’s nomination.

5. NEBRASKA – The Republican incumbent of Nebraska’s 2^nd U.S. congressional district, Don Bacon, has retired, leaving an already blue-leaning district prime for Democrat picking. While polling is mostly within the margin for error, analysts generally rate this as a toss-up to leans Democrat.

While it is not a certain loss for the GOP, it remains a difficult challenge to hold on to with its growing suburban population.

6. NEW YORK – The New York Primary is June 24, 2026. One district presents an opportunity for Democrats to turn Republican seats blue. That district is the 17^th district, where incumbent Mike Lawler is running contested in his primary, but remains a heavy favorite to win.

The Democrats have a mixed field with three front-runners emerging. This district is mostly categorized by analysists as a toss-up or leans Republican.

7. PENNSLYVANIA – This is the bellwether state of the House races, and if there was a Senate Race it might well be a bellwether for Senate races too.

There are three GOP-held seats in PA at serious risk of flipping to Democrat, the 1^st, 7^th, and 10^th districts. The 10^th district race might be the bellwether race of the nation.

In all three races, the GOP incumbent will be facing an opponent endorsed by the Governor, Josh Shapiro. One of these, Janelle Stelson, almost won the 10^th district in 2024. She is a local celebrity pitching a moderate message and banking on her fame as a news reporter to carry her through.

The 7^th District was only recently flipped by Republican Ryan Mackenzie, He will be facing Shapiro-groomed Bob Brooks. Abortion and worker rights are the leading issues the Democrats hope to capture the suburban and working-class neighborhoods of the district.

This is my home district, which is becoming increasingly progressive as New Yorkers continue to move there.

The 1^st District, though, remains the best shot for the Democrats to flip a GOP seat, with incumbent Bob Harvey somehow surviving in a district that voted for Biden. As of right now it remains a toss-up to leans Republican.

The other two districts also lean Republican.

ASSESSMENT

In the U.S. Senate, the Democrats appear to be fighting an uphill battle. As of right now, the GOP is in a strong position to not only hold the Senate, but perhaps expand it by one or two.

When it comes to the U.S. House, all eyes should be on PA’s three vulnerable GOP seats in districts where the Democrats’ hoped-for winning strategy of 2026 is being played out.

Abortion and worker rights, in general, are the Democrats’ hopes for claiming these three districts, with the 7^th representing that balance the most.

The 10^th district, though, represents the power of celebrity to overcome branding, even if it is only local celebrity. As a Pennsylvanian, I’ve heard of Stelson. Her “fame” is probably statewide. If she fails to break through, this is a foreboding sign for the Democrats, whose brand might be heading towards terminal velocity. If she wins, there is still great power in celebrity after all.

Should the GOP hold all three seats, this bodes well for the other suburban-influenced districts. But if the Democrats were to sweep these three seats, this might assure they will retake the House in 2026.

The full fallout of the gerrymandering wars has yet to take effect, and there are still more primaries to go in bellwether states; Therefore, I would rate the outcome of the 2026 congressional election as a toss-up at this point, though that could change significantly if the GOP is able to secure a few more gerrymandering wins.

After the gerrymandering wars have settled, the amount of competitive House seats might fall to under 10, so the wars fought today could set the balance of power for the next decade to come.