The Gop’s Downballot Disaster | American Enterprise Institute– www.aei.org

Two years ago, following the 2024 federal elections in which the GOP captured the presidency and both houses of Congress, I noted the Republican majorities in both houses were extremely slim and that, in the end, Donald Trump’s popular vote total was just a smidgen under 50 percent. “It was a broad victory for Republicans—but not a sweeping one.”

At the state level, there was no “broad” GOP victory in 2024. Republicans made no gain in the number of governors. And they saw no gain in state legislatures controlled. Indeed, with more than 5,000 state legislative seats up for election, the GOP only netted a gain of a little more than 50.

Given Trump’s lack of coattails downballot and the historical pattern in which the president’s party sees midterm losses in the number of state legislatures his party controls, I concluded that “it would hardly be a surprise to see a significant jump in Democratic wins in both state houses and governorships in 2026.”

If, as it seems probable, Democratic gubernatorial nominees win in Alaska and Kansas, the Democrats will have won 24 of the 36 gubernatorial races—an increase of six over their existing number and 30 altogether. Not since before the 2010 midterms have Democrats held a majority of the governorships. As with the previous midterm in 2018, when Trump was president, Republicans lost six governor’s mansions.