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President Trump’s renewed tariff war with China is escalating tensions far beyond trade policy. Despite a brief truce in May, Trump recently admitted that negotiating with Xi Jinping is “extremely hard,” and both sides have since accused each other of violating the agreement. As economic diplomacy unravels, the broader U.S.–China relationship grows more volatile, raising the risk that Beijing may abandon any remaining hopes for peaceful coexistence.
A conflict between the United States and China is becoming increasingly plausible, and perhaps even inevitable. Tensions in the Taiwan Strait have reached dangerous new heights, fueled by Beijing’s military modernization, its sharpened rhetoric, and its belief that Taiwan and the United States are edging closer to crossing red lines. While China still claims to prefer peaceful reunification, its rapid expansion of capabilities, including amphibious assault craft, cable-cutting tools, and joint-force interoperability, signals preparation for a military solution.
China’s greyzone operations around Taiwan, such as unannounced drills, airspace violations, and undersea cable sabotage, have become routine. This normalization of pressure steadily erodes the status quo and raises the risk of miscalculation or deliberate escalation. The shifting political climate in Taiwan under President Lai Ching-te, who has taken a hard stance against Chinese influence, and a more assertive posture from Washington have further narrowed the space for de-escalation.
Under Trump’s second term, the United States is gradually abandoning its long-held policy of strategic ambiguity. His administration has sharply increased arms sales to Taiwan, removed diplomatic language opposing Taiwanese independence, sent U.S. troops to train Taiwanese forces, and reaffirmed ties through legislation and senior-level visits. While aimed at strengthening deterrence, these steps may convince Beijing that time is running out to forcibly achieve unification before U.S. commitments harden into irreversible guarantees.