April 30, 2026

Iran Watch

Blurb:

At least 555 people have been killed in US-Israeli strikes across 131 counties in Iran, the Iranian Red Crescent Society says, amid another wave of intensive attacks and Iranian counterstrikes on Israel and US assets in the Middle East region.

At least 35 people were killed on Monday morning in southern Iran’s Fars province, according to the Mehr news agency. The outlet also reported more than 20 people killed in an attack on Niloofar Square in Tehran.

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Blurb:

Oil prices rose and stock markets came under pressure on Monday after intense US-Israeli strikes on Iran prompted fears of significant global economic disruption.

Brent crude jumped by as much as 13% during early trading – to hit $82 per barrel, a 14-month high – as the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz, one of the most important arteries for global trade, intensified concerns over oil supplies.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 fell by nearly 2.4% as traders in Asia responded to the weekend’s developments. It later pulled back, to trade down 1.5%. Pre-market trading also put Wall Street on course to open lower on Monday.

Blurb:

A former FBI official is warning of potential Iranian-linked attacks inside the United States following US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Chris Swecker, a former assistant FBI director, said Iran-linked groups such as Hezbollah could escalate efforts to carry out attacks against the US after Operation Epic Fury, including attacks on American soil. In comments to the Daily Mail, Swecker said, “We’ve got a cornered animal here, and if ever we’re going to see attacks on the United States, this would be the catalyst for that.”

“It’s a tinder box right now,” he added. “You’ve got the leadership of Iran in a state of desperation.”

Blurb:

Police in York Region have not officially said whether the Thornhill shooting is connected to international developments.

An Iranian-owned boxing gym north of Toronto was struck by gunfire early Sunday morning, a day after US President Donald Trump confirmed reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader had been killed.

York Regional Police said officers responded to reports of shots fired around 3 am near Yonge Street and Steeles Avenue West in Thornhill. When they arrived, they found evidence that multiple rounds had been fired at a commercial building. The property was unoccupied at the time. No injuries were reported.

Blurb:

U.S. President Donald Trump briefly laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran in his State of the Union speech to Congress on Tuesday, saying he would not allow the world’s biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon.

Even while assembling a massive military force in the Middle East, Trump has done little to explain to the American public why he might be leading the U.S. into its most aggressive action against the Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution.

In his speech, Trump pointed to Tehran’s support for militant groups, its killing of protesters and the country’s missile and nuclear programs as threats to the region and the
United States.

Blurb:

A dozen of the world’s most advanced fighter jets touched down in Israel this week, signaling a sharp escalation in America’s military posture as President Donald Trump warned Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions or face consequences.

According to The Times of Israel, twelve U.S. F-22 stealth fighters arrived Tuesday at an Israeli Air Force base as part of the American buildup across the Middle East. Open-source flight tracking data showed the aircraft departing from Royal Air Force Lakenheath in the United Kingdom, though one jet reportedly turned back because of a technical issue before completing the trip.

Blurb:

An Iranian opposition group took credit for a coordinated assault on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s Tehran headquarters this week, reporting “heavy clashes” with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that allegedly left more than 100 of its fighters killed, wounded, or arrested.

The Command Headquarters of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) said the operation began at dawn Monday, February 23, during the call to morning prayer, and continued into the afternoon around the Motahari Complex in central Tehran — one of the Islamic Republic’s most heavily fortified seats of power.

Blurb:

While Iran engages in fake negotiations to stall, deceive, and lie to the Trump Administration, they announce that they will be buying anti-ship missiles from China. President Trump must stop these asinine negotiations with Iran. Iran’s butchers will never honor an agreement with the U.S, most especially when President Trump leaves office in January 2029. History will not be kind to President Trump if he signs a bad nuke deal with Iran.

Related – ‘Complete game-changer’: Iran close to buying supersonic anti‑ship missiles from China

Blurb:

Washington — President Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with what aides describe as the limits of military leverage against Iran, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who spoke to CBS News under condition of anonymity to discuss national security issues.

Unlike previous targeted operations, including the recent one removing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power, Mr. Trump has been told that any strike on Tehran’s assets would almost certainly not be a singular, decisive blow. Instead, limited strikes could open the door to a wider confrontation — one that risks drawing the United States into a protracted conflict in the Middle East.

President Trump’s second SOTU of his second presidency was filled with DNC theatrics and a lot of awkward sitting. The President outlined his list of accomplishments, which were heavy on economics, and warned U.S. companies and other countries about reneging on their tariff deals, saying they will keep those deals, “Knowing that the legal power that I as president have to make a new deal could be far worse for them.” He also made his case for potentially attacking Iran, but expressed a preference for “diplomacy.”

The key part of the President’s speech was the Democrats not standing up, repeatedly, for Americans. They sat for the men’s U.S. Olympic Gold Hockey team, they sat for more heroes, and they even sat for the mother of a woman slain by an illegal immigrant.  The culmination of them not standing came after Trump said this, “If you agree with this statement, then stand up and show your support: The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.”

After the Democrats refused to stand, he stated, “You should be ashamed of yourselves for not standing up. You should be ashamed of yourselves.” At one point he called them “sick people.” It will remain to be seen if the moniker sticks.

Blurb:

Trump Lays Out Case for Possible Attack on Iran in SOTU – dailysignal.com

WASHINGTON, Feb 24 (Reuters) — U.S. President Donald Trump briefly laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran in his State of the Union speech to Congress on Tuesday, saying he would not allow the world’s biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon.

In his speech, Trump pointed to Tehran’s support for militant groups, its killing of protesters and the country’s missile and nuclear programs as threats to the region and the United States.

“The (Iranian) regime and its murderous proxies have spread nothing but terrorism and death and hate,” the Republican president said about 90 minutes into his annual address to a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives.

He accused Iran of restarting its nuclear program, working to build missiles that “soon” would be capable of reaching the United States and of being responsible for roadside bombings that have killed U.S. service members and civilians.

Blurb:

Iranian university students for the last two days have engaged in a new wave of anti-government demonstrations across the country, marking the first major rallies since a violent state crackdown in January.

The protests have reportedly taken place on at least seven campuses as students demand increased political freedom, leading to confrontations with government loyalists, according to various news reports, citing videos of the incidents.

The protests “come as Iran’s clerical leaders struggle to manage uprisings at home and a looming risk of war with Washington,” the New York Times reported.

Blurb:

 

 

For years, the fight over Iran has centered on centrifuges, uranium stockpiles, and enrichment percentages. That framework may now be outdated. If the latest assessments are accurate, Tehran is not merely edging back toward nuclear capability but pairing advanced ballistic missiles with alleged chemical and biological payload potential. That is not incremental pressure. It is strategic escalation.

Blurb:

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Monday that the Iranian regime would face “a force they cannot even imagine” should it attack the Jewish state, as U.S. refueling and cargo aircraft landed at Ben Gurion Airport and an American carrier strike group advanced toward the eastern Mediterranean amid escalating regional tensions.

Addressing the Knesset — Israel’s parliament — during a special debate, Netanyahu said the country is navigating “very complex and challenging days,” cautioning that “no one knows what tomorrow will bring.”

He said he had conveyed a direct message to Tehran: if it makes “perhaps the most serious mistake in its history” and strikes Israel, the response will be overwhelming.

Blurb:

Editor’s note: This is a lightly edited transcript of a segment from today’s edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words” from Daily Signal Senior Contributor Victor Davis Hanson. Subscribe to Hanson’s own YouTube channel to watch past episodes.

Hello, this is Victor Davis Hanson for The Daily Signal. President Donald Trump is positioning the largest naval and air forces with submarines off the coast of Iran—in the Persian Gulf, in the Mediterranean, in the Red Sea—that we’ve seen since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. And there are pros and cons about striking Iran.

We’re not at war with them right now, so this is what we would call either a preventive war, long-term threat, or a preemptive war, that there’s a short-term threat that has to be precluded by the use of force.

President Trump has been moving more U.S. military assets, including carrier groups, into the Persian Gulf region as he threatens war with Iran while continuing to engage diplomatically with Iran. China and Russia have participated in a joint military exercise with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. At home, the President faces a potential congressional challenge to his authority to start a war with Iran. While protests continue sporadically in Iran, and reports of explosions continue to leak out, the regime appears fully in charge as it continues to slaughter the opposition.

Blurb:

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran and the United States leaned into gunboat diplomacy Thursday as nuclear talks between the nations hung in the balance, with Tehran holding drills with Russia and the Americans bringing another aircraft carrier closer to the Mideast.

The Iranian drill and the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier near the mouth of the Mediterranean Sea underscore the tensions between the nations. Iran earlier this week also launched a drill that involved live-fire in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow opening of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil passes.

The movements of additional American warships and airplanes don’t guarantee a U.S. strike on Iran — but it does give President Donald Trump the ability to carry out one should he choose to do so. He’s so far held off on striking Iran after setting red lines over the killing of peaceful protesters and Tehran holding mass executions, while reengaging Tehran in nuclear talks earlier disrupted by the Iran-Israel war in June.

“Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social website, seeking to pressure the United Kingdom over its plans to settle the future of the Chagos Islands with Mauritius.

Meanwhile, Iran struggles with unrest at home following its crackdown on protests, with mourners now holding ceremonies honoring their dead 40 days after their killing by security forces. Some of the gatherings have included anti-government cries, despite threats from authorities.

The drill Thursday saw Iranian forces and Russian sailors conduct operations in the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported. The drill will be aimed at “upgrading operational coordination as well as exchange of military experiences,” IRNA added.

China had joined the “Security Belt” drill in previous years, but there was no acknowledgment it participated in this round. In recent days, a vessel that appeared to be a Steregushchiy-class Russian corvette had been seen at a military port in the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas.

Iran also issued a rocket-fire warning to pilots in the region, suggesting they planned to launch anti-ship missiles in the exercise.

Meanwhile, tracking data showed the Ford off the coast of Morocco in the Atlantic Ocean midday Wednesday, meaning the carrier could transit through Gibraltar and potentially station in the eastern Mediterranean with its supporting guided-missile destroyers.

Having the carrier there could allow American forces to have extra aircraft and anti-missile power to potentially protect Israel and Jordan should a conflict break out with Iran. The U.S. similarly placed warships there during the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip to protect against Iranian fire.

Mourning ceremonies for those killed by security forces in the protests last month also have increased. Iranians traditionally mark the death of a loved one 40 days after the loss. Both witnesses and social media videos showed memorials taking place at Tehran’s massive Behesht-e Zahra cemetery. Some memorials included people chanting against Iran’s theocracy while singing nationalistic songs.

The demonstrations began Dec. 28 at Tehran’s historic Grand Bazaar, initially over the collapse of Iran’s currency, the rial, then spread across the country. Tensions exploded on Jan. 8, with demonstrations called for by Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi.

Iran’s government has offered only one death toll for the violence, with 3,117 people killed. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in previous rounds of unrest in Iran, puts the death toll at over 7,000 killed, with many more feared dead.

___

Associated Press writer Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.

from abcnews.com

Blurb:

If this adviser is correct, there’s a good chance the United States will be at war with Iran.

A senior adviser to President Trump has revealed that there’s a 90% chance the United States will launch a strike against Iran.

The potential attack comes as the United States has sent a large number of Navy and Air Force assets to the Middle East, which includes two of the largest U.S. aircraft carriers.

Blurb:

 

After reports of Iranian missile fire in the most strategically important shipping lane in the Persian Gulf, Tehran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed to all maritime traffic for several hours due to a “Smart Control” exercise conducted by the naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps…. At the same time, Russia, China and Iran deployed naval vessels to the Strait of Hormuz for joint maneuvers, Russian presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev said Tuesday. It was not immediately clear whether the Russian and Chinese ships had already joined the ongoing Iranian drill or were expected to participate in the coming days (Israel Hayom).

Blurb:

Iran fired live missiles into the Strait of Hormuz during naval drills Tuesday and signaled it is prepared to close the strategic waterway if ordered by senior leadership, according to Iranian state-affiliated media.

The drills come as President Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are meeting senior Iranian officials in Geneva for a second round of nuclear talks.

Blurb:

In the latest escalation of America’s pressure campaign against Iran, the Pentagon has ordered the deployment of the Navy’s most powerful aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, from the Caribbean to the Middle East.

The move will bring two of the 11 U.S. carrier strike groups into Middle Eastern waters. The Ford, the largest and most advanced carrier in the world, is expected to join USS Abraham Lincoln and a growing number of guided-missile destroyers, fighter jets, and surveillance aircraft already in the region.

Blurb:

 

The UN Secretary-General congratulated the Islamic Republic of Iran on the anniversary of its revolution.

Yes — congratulated.

This is the same regime accused of unleashing one of the bloodiest crackdowns in its modern history, gunning down its own citizens for the crime of demanding basic freedom. While Iranian families bury their dead, the head of the world’s so-called premier humanitarian body sends warm wishes to their oppressors.