May 4, 2026

04b Theory and Analysis

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Asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered the highest impact risk to Earth ever recorded, is back in the spotlight — this time due to a slight increase in the chance that it could impact the moon in 2032.

Although now too distant to observe from Earth, the asteroid briefly came into view in May for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Using data from the telescope’s Near-Infrared Camera, a team led by Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory refined predictions of where 2024 YR4 will be on Dec. 22, 2032 by nearly 20%. That revised trajectory nudged the odds of a lunar impact from 3.8% to 4.3%, according to a NASA update.

“As data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve,” the statement read. Even if a collision occurs, “it would not alter the moon’s orbit.”

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Real constitutional crises are relatively rare in American history. In 1803, Chief Justice John Marshall could have sparked one with his decision in Marbury v. Madison. In it, he deftly asserted that the Supreme Court had the power to invalidate laws or actions it saw as unconstitutional. That assertion didn’t cause a crisis in the fledgling nation mainly because it came in a decision that supported the Jefferson administration, and as such the president was not inclined to protest.

Then of course there was President Franklin Roosevelt’s court-packing scheme in 1937. In 1936, in the face of continuing 5-4 decisions going against his New Deal legislation, FDR’s Attorney General Homer Cummings proffered an idea penned by one of his predecessors in 1914, James Clark McReynolds: for every justice older than 70, a new justice should be appointed. Ironically, in 1936 McReynolds was a 75-year-old associate justice.

FDR’s legislation died in committee, but it would likely not have survived even if it had made it out of committee as it faced a great deal of bipartisan opposition. But it didn’t really matter because Justice Owen Roberts, who had been a thorn in the side of much of the New Deal legislation, joined the leftists in upholding West Coast Hotel Co. v. Parrish in 1937 and became a relatively reliable New Deal supporter going forward.

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Is Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill “grotesque?” That’s what Elon Musk says. Though let’s be honest, it’s probably not the bill’s cost that’s bothering him. It’s the fact that the bill cuts the EV tax credits that keeps Tesla’s whole business model floating. Sorry, Elon!

Yes, the bill is big. It’s bold. It’s expensive. But it’s also everything we’ve been asking for, and then some. If you’re only looking at the price tag, you’re missing the bigger point: this bill actually delivers.

Do you like tax cuts? Because the Big Beautiful Bill is packed with them. Permanent Trump tax cuts? Locked in. Child tax credit? Raised to $2,500. Overtime pay? Tax-free. Tips? Also tax-free. That means bartenders, bellhops, and servers just got a raise without a single employer raising payroll. It’s basically a stimulus that doesn’t come with government strings. It’s economic empowerment. It’s dignity for the American worker. It’s someone-in-D.C.-finally-gets-it!

And before the deficit hawks start in on all this, let’s get one thing straight. This bill also includes the largest rollback of federal government bloat in modern history. $1.6 trillion in cuts. That’s not nothing! And guess what? The even deeper DOGE cuts are coming in a separate bill. Consider this round one of draining the swamp.

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The U.S. Department of Education has notified the Middle States Commission on Higher Education (the “Commission”) that Columbia University is not in compliance with the Commission’s accreditation requirements.

From the DoEd Press Release:

The U.S. Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) today notified Middle States Commission on Higher Education (the Commission) that its member institution, Columbia University, is in violation of federal antidiscrimination laws and therefore fails to meet the standards for accreditation set by the Commission. Pursuant to President Trump’s Executive Order, Reforming Accreditation to Strengthen Higher Education, the Department has an obligation to promptly provide accreditors with any noncompliance findings related to member institutions.

The Commission’s “Standards for Accreditation and Requirements of Affiliation” state that “a candidate or accredited institution possesses or demonstrates … compliance with all applicable government laws and regulations.” In light of OCR’s determination, Columbia University no longer appears to meet the Commission’s accreditation standards.

“After Hamas’ October 7, 2023, terror attack on Israel, Columbia University’s leadership acted with deliberate indifference towards the harassment of Jewish students on its campus. This is not only immoral, but also unlawful. Accreditors have an enormous public responsibility as gatekeepers of federal student aid. They determine which institutions are eligible for federal student loans and Pell Grants. Just as the Department of Education has an obligation to uphold federal antidiscrimination law, university accreditors have an obligation to ensure member institutions abide by their standards,” said U.S. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon. “We look forward to the Commission keeping the Department fully informed of actions taken to ensure Columbia’s compliance with accreditation standards including compliance with federal civil rights laws.” ….

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Bottom line: As top labs race to build an AI master race, many turn a blind eye to dangerous behaviors – including lying, cheating, and manipulating users – that these systems increasingly exhibit. This recklessness, driven by commercial pressure, risks unleashing tools that could harm society in unpredictable ways.

Artificial intelligence pioneer Yoshua Bengio warns that AI development has become a reckless race, where the drive for more powerful systems often sidelines vital safety research. The competitive push to outpace rivals leaves ethical concerns by the wayside, risking serious consequences for society.

“There’s unfortunately a very competitive race between the leading labs, which pushes them towards focusing on capability to make the AI more and more intelligent, but not necessarily put enough emphasis and investment on [safety research],” Bengio told the Financial Times.

Bengio’s concern is well-founded. Many AI developers act like negligent parents watching their child throw rocks, casually insisting, “Don’t worry, he won’t hit anyone.” Rather than confronting these deceptive and harmful behaviors, labs prioritize market dominance and rapid growth. This mindset risks allowing AI systems to develop dangerous traits with real-world consequences that go far beyond mere errors or bias.

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America’s defense industrial base is in the throes of major change. For the first time in 40 years, major power war is a real possibility. Conflicts in Ukraine and Israel are providing a harrowing glimpse of what that war might look like. Technology is evolving at a dizzying pace. Instead of peacetime efficiency, governments are prioritizing wartime surge capacity. The “China shock” and COVID-19 have destabilized global supply chains.

Amid these daunting realities, a new generation of defense technology companies has emerged. Anduril Industries — which was founded in 2017 and which I joined in 2020 — is one of them. Of course, defense technology companies aim to make money. But these companies also aim to disrupt and transform American defense by changing culture, attracting new and better talent, harnessing commercial technologies, championing software, bolstering competition, reforming acquisition practices, and more. Only time will tell if they are successful. But perhaps not as much time as one might think. As more defense technology companies scale to compete with traditional defense primes, the contours of a new defense industrial base are emerging.

Changes to this scope, speed, and scale naturally lead to questions, anxieties, and fears. To wit, these pages recently carried a warning about an impending “new era of defense giants.” According to this view, defense technology companies are engaging in corporate acquisitions that mirror the defense industry consolidation carried out by the traditional defense primes after the end of the Cold War. This new consolidation is hurting small businesses and making America’s defense industrial base less diverse, resilient, and innovative.

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The Trump administration has charged the surveillance firm Palantir with agglomerating the US population’s personal data across government agencies, raising alarm about a centralized spying tool targeting hundreds of millions without oversight. Wall Street responded to the news by sending Palantir’s stock price to unprecedented heights.

During an end-of-year investor call this February, Palantir co-founder and militant Zionist Alex Karp bragged that his company was making a financial killing by enabling mass murder.

“Palantir is here to disrupt and make the institutions we partner with the very best in the world and, when it’s necessary, to scare enemies,” he stated, adding: “And on occasion, kill them.”  

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To appreciate the complexities of policing online hate speech that underlie an April summary decision by Meta’s Oversight Board, let’s start with a musical detour through a 2017 US Supreme Court opinion called Matal v. Tam. The Court faced the First Amendment question in Matal of whether the US Patent and Trademark Office (PTO) could lawfully deny a band’s request to register its name––The Slants––as a trademark. The PTO claimed denial was okay because “slants” disparages Asians.

The wrinkle was that the band’s members are Asian and their frontman, Simon Tam, wanted “to ‘reclaim’ and ‘take ownership’ of stereotypes about people of Asian ethnicity.” As Tam explained:

We grew up and the notion of having slanted eyes was always considered a negative thing. Kids would pull their eyes back in a slant-eyed gesture to make fun of us . . .  I wanted to change it to something that was powerful, something that was considered beautiful or a point of pride instead.

Via Shutterstock.

This relates to “reappropriation by self-labeling” or “reclamation.” It involves marginalized groups seeking “to redefine the negative connotations” of a label and reclaiming “social power, as they become in charge of the word’s meaning.”

The Supreme Court sided with Tam, reasoning that the PTO’s denial of registration for The Slants because it disparages Asians “offends a bedrock First Amendment principle: Speech may not be banned on the ground that it expresses ideas that offend.” Rejecting the stance that speech isn’t constitutionally protected simply because it’s hateful, the Court asserted that:

Speech that demeans on the basis of race, ethnicity, gender, religion, age, disability, or any other similar ground is hateful; but the proudest boast of our free speech jurisprudence is that we protect the freedom to express “the thought that we hate.”

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In this article I will be proposing an early framework for a mental health intervention called depsychiatrization. Depsychiatrization describes the processes by which a diagnosed individual learns to expel psychiatrically induced self-concepts and substitute them for more empowering and nurturing understandings. These processes are not, in themselves, entirely novel, as they have been a part of many alternative movements throughout time. It is the ambition behind this proposal to formalize a way of helping and supporting people who would benefit from depsychiatrization, as well as supplying a legitimizing platform to stand on for those who wish to encourage growth without pathology.

Much has been written on the many ways in which psychiatry does harm to individuals seeking help for mental health issues: The medical treatments are far too often more harmful than beneficial, especially in the long run. The symptom-focused therapeutic treatments rarely produce sustainable outcomes leading to better lives. For instance, electroshock therapy is a disputed method at best, a harmful, medieval practice at worst.

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President Donald Trump returned to Washington in January with a mandate from the American people to end mass migration. That same month, however, the foreign-born population living within America’s borders hit a record high, in an echo of the Roman Empire. Is it too late to save America from mass migration? Even if America is saved, will it be fundamentally changed in the process?

As a California farmer, Victor Davis Hanson faces the reality of this demographic change every day. As a historian and classicist, he knows all too well what happens to regimes and empires that fail to confront mass migration. This week, he joins “The Signal Sitdown” to discuss.

“Everybody,” Hanson told The Daily Signal, “is bewildered why [former President] Joe Biden, or whoever was controlling him, did this.”

Hanson described the pressure to keep migrants streaming into the country as “a consortium of interests” that include corporations (which desire cheap labor), other nations (which benefit from remittances), the cartels, and liberal ideologues.

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On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced it was processing the family of Mohamed Soliman — the radical Islamist who allegedly set Jewish demonstrators ablaze in Boulder on Sunday — for removal from the country. Then came the order from a rogue judge blocking the administration.

Judge Gordon Gallagher’s two-page order halting the removal of Soliman’s wife and five children — all illegal aliens, according to Stephen Miller — isn’t merely a misapplication of justice. It is a direct assault on the executive branch’s constitutional authority. And if President Donald Trump continues to treat these rogue judicial decrees as legitimate, he not only cedes national security to ideological partisans in black robes — he permits a full-blown constitutional crisis to fester unchecked.

On Wednesday, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced that DHS and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) “have taken the family of suspected Boulder, Colorado terrorist, and illegal alien, Mohamed Soliman, into ICE custody.”

But within hours, Gallagher issued an order stating the Trump administration “SHALL NOT REMOVE Hayem El Gamal and her five children from the District of Colorado or the United States unless or until this Court or the Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit vacates this Order.”

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Bizarre quantum dynamics underpin our view of reality: Time travels forward for us, but in the quantum world, it may flow in two directions. Gravity itself may follow quantum rules. Quantum mechanics supports the possibility of alternative universes, but even if they exist, we can’t access them (and probably shouldn’t anyway). Some physicists argue that quantum rules dictate that everything in the universe is preordained, making free will an illusion, so we might as well accept our current reality.

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Over the weekend, a conservative Polish historian named Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice opposition (and President Trump), narrowly won the Polish presidential election. For the European political establishment, Nawrocki’s victory was a catastrophe — a harbinger of right-wing fascism looming over the continent.

Why? Because Nawrocki campaigned against the mass immigration policy of Brussels while promoting conservative Catholic values and Polish nationalism. During his victory speech Sunday night, Nawrocki said, “My Poland is a Poland without illegal migrants. It is a Poland where, instead of integration centers, there are deportation centers for those who want to destroy our safety.”

It turns out, this sentiment is increasingly popular not just in Poland but all across Europe. Last week in Portugal, the right-wing populist Chega party overtook the center-left Socialist Party as the country’s main opposition. Six years ago, Chega had only a single seat in the Assembly of the Republic. It now has 60. In Germany, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is one of the most popular political parties in the country, yet Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has officially classified AfD a right-wing extremist group. Why? Because AfD opposes mass immigration and promotes German national identity. In France’s national elections last year, only a desperately cobbled-together coalition of left-wing parties prevented the right-wing National Rally (RN) and its allies from winning.

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During his remarks to Parliament last Thursday, Prime Minister Carney waxed gleefully about the U.S. federal trade court ruling against President Trump’s tariffs, just moments before the federal appeals court stayed the opinion of the lower court. It’s a little funny.

Carney doesn’t seem to recognize the reality of the economic landscape before him. He complains about blocked access to the U.S. consumer base with a level of entitlement that’s genuinely humorous. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy around him is collapsing:

Following the 2024 presidential election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Mar-a-Lago and said if President Trump were to make the Canadian government face reciprocal tariffs, open the USMCA trade agreements to force reciprocity, and/or balance economic relations on non-tariff issues, then Canada would collapse upon itself economically and cease to exist. In essence, in addition to the NATO defense shortfall, Canada cannot survive as a free and independent North American nation, without receiving all the one-way benefits from the U.S. economy.

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A US federal court has blocked President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, in a major blow to a key component of his economic policies.

The Court of International Trade ruled that an emergency law invoked by the White House did not give the president unilateral authority to impose tariffs on nearly every country.

The Manhattan-based court said the US Constitution gave Congress exclusive powers to regulate commerce with other nations and this was not superseded by the president’s remit to safeguard the economy.

The Trump administration lodged an appeal within minutes of the ruling.

Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) has revealed plans to create a “Shadow Cabinet,” a de facto shadow government of the current American administration. While this is a tradition in some nations, including Britain, the move is seen as a precursor to insurrectionist-type activity in America, where no shadow government has ever been formed.

Politico is already suggesting who the “heavy hitters” of this shadow government would be, including the seditious Samantha Power as Secretary of State, the main decision-maker of USAID, a DNC dark money slush fund to overthrow foreign governments and American ones as well (see the 2020 election). Another startling suggestion is Letitia James, the disgraced Soros Attorney General currently under investigation herself for ACTUAL mortgage fraud.

Joe Concha warns alleged shadow Cabinet ‘is not democracy’– www.washingtonexaminer.com
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Washington Examiner senior writer Joe Concha compared a proposed shadow Cabinet of celebrities and Democratic politicians to the “Soviet Union in the United States.”

Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) revealed to Politico her long-teased plan to create a shadow Cabinet, which would include comedian Nikki Glaser as small business administrator, Dallas Mavericks minority owner Mark Cuban as secretary of commerce, children’s TV star Bill Nye as Environmental Protection Agency administrator, and Letitia James as attorney general, among others.

“I know it’s only May, but this is by far the dumbest piece you will read all year. We already had a shadow Cabinet running this country in the Biden administration when we had a president whose brain turned to applesauce, and apparently other people were running the autopen,” Concha said on Fox News’s Fox & Friends on Wednesday. “That was just so inept, but perhaps Bill Nye, the science guy, Nikki Glaser, Letitia James, who may be going to jail, those could be possible upgrades from what we saw.”

Concha was referring to the allegations against James regarding “falsified” records she used to secure home loans for a Norfolk, Virginia, property she said was her “principal residence” as a New York prosecutor. By so doing, she likely received a better mortgage rate from a bank than if she had applied for a secondary residence loan.

“This proposed shadow government, I don’t understand the point because the current government right now is, according to the people, doing well on the economy, border, and issues people care about most,” Concha said. “Cabinet members are not elected by the people, right? These people are installed.”

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Democrats desperately want to control the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. However, their plan to wield power will likely doom their political future, but could give Republicans a golden opportunity.

An expert political strategist has issued a stark warning to the Democrats about their midterm prospects. If their plan succeeds, it would mean short-term gain but long-term pain for the embattled party.

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Most Americans assume the United States is the world’s unrivaled nuclear superpower. The truth is, America’s nuclear stockpile has shrunk significantly. Meanwhile, China is building nuclear weapons at a rapid pace, and arms experts believe the world’s security is now at serious risk due to the communist regime’s expansionist schemes.

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has dramatically reduced the number of nuclear weapons it has deployed or in storage. That arsenal today is roughly 85 percent smaller than at the height of the nuclear arms race with the Soviet Union, and the number of operational nukes is tiny compared to 40 years ago.

America’s nuclear stockpile has fallen to levels not seen since the 1960s, while China has embarked on an unprecedented nuclear buildup.