September 19, 2026

Iran Watch

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EXCERPT:

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday evening that he is pausing the U.S. effort to guide stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz to allow time for a deal to end the Iran war, but that the American forces’ blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place.

Trump announced the decision in a social media post, saying the effort — which started on Monday in the vital waterway for global energy — would pause for a short period to see whether an agreement with Tehran on ending the war in the Middle East could be finalized.

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U.S. President Donald Trump said that Iran will be bombed “at a much higher level” if it doesn’t agree to a peace deal.

The president said the war “will be at an end” if Iran agrees to the proposals, meaning the Strait of Hormuz “will be open to all.”

His post on Truth Social came after markets reacted to an Axios report that the U.S. and Iran were close to an agreement that would bring their two-month war to an end.

The outlet reported on Wednesday that Washington expects responses from Tehran on several key points to form the basis of a one-page memo within the next 48 hours.

Oil prices fell sharply in response, while U.S. stock futures, equities listed in Europe and global sovereign bonds rallied.

In his Truth Social post, the president warned that if Iran did not agree to a deal, “the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.”

Before the post, a Pakistan government official told MS Now: “The prospect of a proposal to end the war is very likely in the coming days.”

A spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry told CNBC earlier on Wednesday they were “evaluating” a 14-article peace proposal from the U.S.

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President Donald Trump revived talk of the United States smuggling arms to the Iranian people for the purpose of fighting the regime, suggesting that weapons were already on their way.

Talk of arming the Iranian people died down after speculation in the first weeks of hostilities, with Trump claiming weapons were sent, but that the Kurds took them all. In a Monday interview on the Hugh Hewitt Show, Trump openly labored over the question of whether to arm the Iranian people when asked if he was encouraging the public to protest, bringing up the January crackdown that saw the massacre of tens of thousands of protesters by the government.

“Well, look, the problem is you can’t — if you have five people with a gun, and 250,000 [without], the five people with a gun, assuming it’s used fast enough, which they do… they’re going to win. They have to, they don’t have weapons,” Trump said.

He then brought up the thousands of unarmed protesters who were killed in December and January.

“They lost 42,000, to be exact. 42,000 people in about a two-week period. Protesters, innocent, unarmed protesters,” Trump said. “So we’re not dealing with, you know, your typical people.”

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The leader of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah has reiterated the group’s rejection of an ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon that was brokered by the U.S.

“There is no ceasefire in Lebanon, but rather continuous Israeli-American aggression,” declared Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem in a written statement Monday, vowing that Hezbollah would “remain patient and continue to resist.”

The Hezbollah chief argued that Israel “has not implemented a single step of the agreement, violating it more than 10,000 times, killing 500 civilians, wounding hundreds, destroying thousands of homes and livelihoods, and displacing people from their villages.”

Israel’s on-and-off war with Hezbollah escalated dramatically two days after Israel and the U.S. launched their joint strikes on Iran, on Feb. 28. A barrage of Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon and around the capital Beirut was followed by an ongoing ground invasion.

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British maritime risk management group Vanguard said authorities would investigate whether the damage might have been caused by an attack, a drifting sea mine or another external object.

In response to the incident, South Korea’s Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries said on Tuesday it had asked Korean vessels in the area to move to safer locations and said authorities were in close communications with shipping companies and stranded vessels.

The South Korean government has said 26 South Korean-flagged vessels were stranded around the Strait of Hormuz.

In a post on the Truth Social platform, Trump said Iran had fired shots at the ship and other targets as the US launched an operation seeking to open the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.

He suggested it could be time for South Korea to join his new effort to help guide stranded ships through the waterway typically used to carry about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

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The U.S. military on Monday denied claims that Iran struck a U.S. Navy vessel as American forces now offer to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, where hundreds have been stuck since the Iran war began. Tehran has blocked vessels that don’t receive its authorization.

Iranian news agencies, including the semiofficial agency Fars and the Iranian Labour News Agency, claimed that Iran had struck a U.S. vessel near an Iranian port southeast of the strait, accusing it of “violating maritime security and navigation norms.” The reports said the vessel was forced to turn back.

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As May 2026 unfolds, the world’s attention is fixed on a high-stakes diplomatic theater. By mid-May, President Donald Trump is slated for a pivotal two-day state visit to Beijing. This visit comes at a time when the Middle East is on a knife-edge.

The geopolitical landscape is defined by a grueling stalemate: the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed by Iran in retaliation initially for the U.S.-Israeli air strikes, and now a persistent U.S. naval blockade that has strangled the Iranian economy for weeks.

While indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue via Pakistani and Omani mediators, the “ground truth” remains volatile. Despite a shaky ceasefire, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to broadcast defiance, signaling no intention of dismantling its nuclear enrichment facilities or its sophisticated ballistic missile program. At this critical juncture, the question isn’t just whether Trump can negotiate with Iran, but whether he can leverage China to force Tehran’s hand.

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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine are holding a news conference Tuesday morning as the ceasefire in the Iran war faces serious tests. U.S. Navy destroyers on Monday fended off a sustained barrage of Iranian missiles, attack drones and small boats as they helped two commercial vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz.

“Iran cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from an international waterway,” Hegseth said at the news conference.

Hegseth noted that Project Freedom, the U.S. guiding of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, is “separate and distinct from Operation Epic Fury.” He called the operation a “temporary solution” for the U.S., saying “the world needs this waterway more than we do.”

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Iran is accusing the U.S. of violating the fragile ceasefire agreement between the two countries after President Trump directed the U.S. Navy to ensure the safe passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.   “The new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is in the process of being solidified,” Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher…

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… A ceasefire by U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be on shaky ground after Iran launched strikes against the United Arab Emirates. The U.S. Central Command said it sank six Iranian small boats in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump later escalated the rhetoric, telling Fox News that Iran will be “blown off the face of the earth” if it targets U.S. ships that are protecting commercial vessels transiting the strait.

He also called on South Korea to support U.S. efforts after he claimed a South Korean cargo ship had come under fire from Iran. Seoul had not publicly responded as of the time of writing.

These developments have spooked investors. International benchmark Brent crude futures rose nearly 6% to settle at $114.44 per barrel, while all three major U.S. stock indexes dipped.

Some analysts are sounding the alarm, warning that global economies could be “sleepwalking” into a “big recession”, as investors continue to underestimate the impact of the oil price shock, according to Amrita Sen, founder and director, market intelligence at Energy Aspect.

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President Trump says Iran is “in a State of Collapse” and wants the Strait of Hormuz opened “as soon as possible” while talks continue.

That is the pressure point right now: Tehran wants relief, global energy markets want the waterway open, and the U.S. blockade is still being used as leverage.

Fox News highlighted Trump’s latest comments Tuesday afternoon:

Axios put Trump’s Tuesday claim in the larger negotiating picture:

Trump said Iran had told the United States it wanted the Strait of Hormuz opened quickly while it worked through a leadership crisis. The key caveat is that Tehran has not publicly confirmed Trump’s version of the message, so the claim still sits inside a live diplomatic standoff rather than a settled public agreement.

President Trump has rejected the latest proposal by Iran to continue the ceasefire, which seems to be de facto over. The Supreme Leader has allegedly emerged and promised to free the Strait of Hormuz from U.S. presence. The progressive media is casting doubts on U.S. power while Trump’s base buckles in its support for the war.

Iran’s Missing ‘Supreme Leader,’ in Written Message, Vows ‘Future Free of America’ for Strait of Hormuz www.breitbart.com
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The alleged, but missing, “supreme leader” of Iran Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly issued a written message on Thursday declaring that his country will impose a “new legal framework and management system for the Strait of Hormuz” that will result in a future “free of America” in the waterway.

Khamenei’s message declared the Strait, in which Iran has for over a month attempted to endanger commercial traffic, a “divine blessing” for his nation that the Islamist terror regime takes seriously. His statement, issued on the occasion of Iran’s “National Persian Gulf Day,” also contained a commitment to continue the regime’s illicit nuclear development — the main issue that the administration of President Donald Trump is seeking to settle with Iran.

The message follows weeks of attempts to end hostilities between Iran and America that began on February 28, when the Pentagon launched Operation Epic Fury and killed Khamenei’s father, longtime brutal dictator Ali Khamenei. President Trump announced a ceasefire this month that was initially intended to last two weeks, but has since been extended indefinitely. In public statements on his website, Truth Social, President Trump has explained that the extension was necessary given the large number of senior leaders in the Iranian regime that have been killed, resulting in unclear leadership and an intense power struggle within the terror state’s government apparatus. Iranian officials have attempted to deny the discord among their ranks but also have not at press time been able to organize a coherent response to the White House’s attempts to construct a long-lasting peace agreement.

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Beyond the bubble of hardened MAGA cultists and a smattering of elite pundits, the joint American-Israeli war on Iran announced by a somnolent President Trump on February 28 is widely regarded as a pointless fiasco that is doing incalculable and growing damage to the global economy. The fact that the president once again unilaterally extended the ceasefire with Iran last week means that he still has no credible ideas about how to get traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz. He’s similarly flummoxed when it comes to imposing America’s settlement terms on an emboldened regime in Tehran—despite his constant insistence that the war has resulted in an unprecedented, monumental American victory.

Regardless of if or when Trump’s crack negotiating team featuring zero Iran experts returns to Islamabad to meet with Tehran’s delegation, the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is untenable. Oil prices are creeping up again after dropping on President Trump’s flurry of hallucinatory statements on April 17 proclaiming that the war would be wrapping up soon. The end was inevitably near, Trump insisted, because Iran had agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz, forgo the ability to enrich uranium forever and relinquish its stockpile of what the president with almost child-like wonder calls “nuclear dust.”

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70 structures. 11 US military bases overseas. Seven countries. $5 billion in damage.

The damage inflicted by Iranian forces on American and allied bases in the Middle East during the opening weeks of Operation Epic Fury will have substantial financial consequences. Not only will America’s now-degraded forward troop presence change as a result, but the deliberations over what to rebuild will be time-consuming and highly consequential.

After rebuilding and repairs, US military force posture across Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq is likely to shift locations, and shrink in the Gulf overall. Given the way in which the war in Iran has revealed America’s shallow munitions stockpiles and limited air defenses, the remaining open question for US allies and partners is: Are US bases still a net benefit to their security? The implications for force planning and modernization could see major disruptions depending on how the US and Gulf governments answer this question.

Country Base Estimated Damage
Bahrain 5th Fleet Headquarters 2 SATCOM terminals, 2 radomes, and 3 large warehouses
Iraq Erbil Military Base 1 storage building
Jordan Muwaffaq Salti Air Base 1 general administrative building
Kuwait Ali Al Salem Air Base 3 hangars, parts of the runway, 15 small warehouses, 1 maintenance shed
Kuwait Camp Arifjan 6 radomes, 4 small and large warehouses, 1 general administrative building, 1 maintenance shed
Kuwait Camp Buehring 1 SATCOM terminal, 1 hanger, 4 small and large warehouses
Kuwait Shuaiba Port 1 general administrative building
Qatar Al Udeid Air Base Parts of the runway
Saudi Arabia Prince Sultan Air Base 1 small warehouse, 1 radome
UAE Al Dhafra Air Base 2 general administrative buildings, 2 small hangars, 1 medical clinic, 6 fuel storages, 1 barracks
UAE Al Ruwais Military Base 5 small warehouses, 2 general administrative buildings
Source: Author’s analysis.

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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took aim at the realities facing the United States in its war against Iran. Speaking to students in Marsberg, the German head of state did not hold back, stating that the “entire nation is being humiliated” by Iran.

When the war first broke out, Merz backed Trump and his actions in Iran, saying the U.S. was doing the dirty work for the world. Now, with the war dragging on, he is sharply changing his tune as his approval drops to rock-bottom support levels.

The chancellor specifically noted the role of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in putting the U.S. in its current predicament. He also took issue with having started the war, thinking it would be an easy win. And America, he made clear, should have learned from its own history by now from other failed wars.