April 30, 2026

Iran Watch

Blurb:

The author of that post on X was referring to an online intelligence dashboard following the US-Israel strikes against Iran in real time. Built by two people from the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, it combines open-source data like satellite imagery and ship tracking with a chat function, news feeds, and links to prediction markets, where people can bet on things like who Iran’s next “supreme leader” will be (the recent selection of Mojtaba Khamenei left some bettors with a payout).

I’ve reviewed over a dozen other dashboards like this in the last week. Many were apparently “vibe-coded” in a couple of days with the help of AI tools, including one that got the attention of a founder of the intelligence giant Palantir, the platform through which the US military is accessing AI models like Claude during the war. Some were built before the conflict in Iran, but nearly all of them are being advertised by their creators as a way to beat the slow and ineffective media by getting straight to the truth of what’s happening on the ground. “Just learned more in 30 seconds watching this map than reading or watching any major news network,” one commenter wrote on LinkedIn, responding to a visualization of Iran’s airspace being shut down before the strikes.

Blurb:

President Donald Trump says a sharp increase in high oil prices is a “small price to pay” in the fight against Iran.

“Short-term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, are a very small price to pay for the U.S. and world safety and peace,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding, “ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”

Oil prices have risen to more than $100 a barrel since the United States launched its attack on Iran in conjunction with Israel, killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and striking hundreds of Iran’s military targets.

Crude oil futures in London and New York soared almost 30% to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday, one of the biggest one-day jumps on record in early trading, threatening to raise costs of products from gasoline to jet fuel.

Blurb:

“On day 10 of Operation Epic Fury, we are winning with an overwhelming and unrelenting focus on our objectives.”

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has said that the most intense day of strikes in Iran will be coming on Tuesday. This comes as the war in Iran has entered its tenth day after the US and Israel conducted strikes in Iran on February 28. “Today will be, yet again, our most intense day of strikes inside Iran, the most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes, intelligent, more refined and better than ever,” Hegseth said in a press briefing Tuesday morning.

“On day 10 of Operation Epic Fury, we are winning with an overwhelming and unrelenting focus on our objectives, which are the same as the day I gave my first briefing here on Operation Epic Fury. They’re straightforward, and we are executing with ruthless precision. One, destroy their missile stockpiles, their missile launchers and their defense industrial base, missiles and their ability to make them. Two, destroy their navy. And three, permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons, forever,” Hegseth added.

Blurb:

The film was captivating, but the reviews were negative.

Israel launched a devastating attack Saturday night on oil storage facilities in Tehran, with results that residents told the U.K.’s Guardian were “apocalyptic.”

“Thick black smoke was still rising in the sky, soot covered the streets and cars, balconies filled with black gunk, and the toxic air had filled the lungs,” the Guardian said in describing the aftermath of the attack.

Multiple social media posts showed the extent of the damage.

Blurb:

In Tehran’s latest signal that it will not blink, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the country is not looking to negotiate with the United States and Israel.

As the war enters its 11th day, Iran has struggled to mount an effective response to the blistering U.S.-Israeli air and missile strikes that have devastated its military. Despite this, Ghalibaf said the government was not seeking negotiations and hinted that Tehran would somehow hit its enemies with heavy military force.

“Absolutely, we are not seeking a ceasefire; we believe we must strike the aggressor in the mouth so that it learns a lesson and never again even thinks of aggressing against our dear Iran,” Ghalibaf said on X. “The Zionist regime sees its ignoble existence in perpetuating the cycle of ‘war-negotiation-ceasefire and then war again’ in order to consolidate its domination. We will break this cycle.”

Ghalibaf, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, is a longtime leader of Iran’s conservative faction, known as the “principlists.” He has consistently advocated for hardline policies against the U.S. and Israel, and played a central role in ordering the massacre of tens of thousands of protesters in January.

Blurb:

The Iran war is still in its early days. Our operations against the Iranian regime have so far been swift and apparently devastating.

But those who remember Iraq know that Saddam Hussein’s conventional forces were destroyed in very quick order by U.S. troops in 2003. The trouble came afterward. Our attempts to stabilize the country, root out terrorists, and prop up an American-friendly regime bogged down into one of the “forever wars” Donald Trump campaigned against during the 2016 election cycle.

Our wars (sorry, “authorized armed conflicts”) in the Middle East didn’t bring us victory, but they did bring us a stream of “refugees” from the same Third World cesspits we were trying (and failing) to reform into proper nations.

We don’t know how the Iran War will end. It could be over in a few weeks, or it could be over by September. Or by September 2036. Regardless of how long it lasts or how devastating it is for Iran, we absolutely cannot take a single “refugee” from this conflict.

Blurb:

Democratic Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly raised concerns Monday about Iran’s nuclear ambitions while arguing that the country was not enriching uranium at weapons-grade levels.

During a discussion about U.S. policy toward Iran on “Anderson Cooper 360,” Kelly pointed to Trump’s 2018 decision to exit the deal negotiated under former President Barack Obama. The senator argued that the agreement limited Iran’s uranium enrichment at the time and suggested that abandoning it contributed to the current tensions.

“In 2018, when Donald Trump was in the White House, he tore up the Iran nuclear deal,” Kelly said. “They were not enriching uranium to the point where they could develop a nuclear weapon. But Donald Trump didn’t like it because it was something his predecessor put in place. And he tore it up.”

The Arizona senator said, however, that Iran’s nuclear capabilities remain a serious concern.

Blurb:

President Donald Trump has issued a warning to the Islamic Republic of Iran, stating that “death, fire, and fury will reign upon” the Persian state should they interfere with the transportation of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital sea trade route.

Trump claimed that American forces would strike the country “twenty times harder” and will “make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back,” he said in his post to Truth social. The IRGC still seems to think that they are in the driver’s seat, however. They claim that they will be the ones to determine the end of conflict, but that would only be true in the sense that they would choose the date of their surrender.

Trump’s message comes after an Iranian announcement claiming that they would allow nations who would expel American and Israeli diplomats to have free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Blurb:

On Monday’s broadcast of CNN’s “The Arena,” Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH) said that Iran was building up the means to protect its enrichment work and the choice was to wait until it was built or hit now “while they’re weak” and “I would have said, yeah, go now. We don’t want to have to get to a point where we have a larger, more complicated, more expensive, more deadly war. So, the strikes make sense.”

Host Kasie Hunt asked, “Where are you on the success or failure of what we’ve seen here? Do you think the world is currently better off today than it was before this started?”

Landsman answered, “We don’t know yet, right? The decision was, look, the Iranian regime wants to enrich uranium. They want to do it underground. We can stop that. But they were building up this shield to protect the enrichment work. At what point do you go in? Do you wait until it’s already up and running, this shield, which makes it difficult to penetrate, if not impossible? Or do you go now and do it while they’re weak? I would have said, yeah, go now. We don’t want to have to get to a point where we have a larger, more complicated, more expensive, more deadly war. So, the strikes make sense. But they need to get in, get them done, and then get out.”

Blurb:

The president is optimistic. Our joint operation is ahead of its own projected timelines. Wall Street Journal: President Trump said the Iran war will be over “very soon,” but that the U.S. military campaign still has further to go. At a Monday press conference, he said: “We’re achieving major strides toward completing our military objective. We could call it a tremendous success right now,” he added, “or we could go further, and we’re going to go further.” Earlier, he signaled in an interview with CBS News that the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much,” a sign that he may soon call an end to the bombing campaign (Wall Street Journal).

Blurb:

The selection of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of slain Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as Iran’s new supreme leader sends a clear message that “the regime isn’t reformable,” one foreign policy expert says.

The 88 senior Shiite clerics who met to name Ali Khamenei’s successor could have chosen to largely hold to their “national priorities” and also “send something to [U.S. President Donald] Trump,” said Ilan Berman, senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council, but “that’s not what’s happening here.”

Ali Khamenei did not leave a succession plan, but the son is someone who “the hardliners in the system can coalesce around,” Berman told The Daily Signal.

While Mojtaba Khamenei may have been the only clear choice still alive to take the role, his selection contradicts the doctrine of the regime, which opposes dynastic rule.

Blurb:

President Donald Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth flatly denied that U.S. forces targeted civilians after a missile strike destroyed a girls’ school in Minab, Iran. Trump said the information he reviewed suggested Iran may have caused the explosion itself, while Hegseth repeated that U.S. forces don’t deliberately attack civilians and confirmed the Pentagon is reviewing the incident.

That didn’t stop Western media outlets from rushing to repeat Tehran’s accusations.

This may be a shock to you, but Iranian state media quickly blamed the United States and Israel for the February 28 explosion at Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school, which killed 168 people, injuring dozens more.

The claim rapidly spread through Western coverage, even though it came from the same government currently fighting the United States.

Blurb:

When Vice President J.D. Vance addressed the Munich Security Conference in February 2025, he delivered a blunt critique: Europe had retreated from fundamental values like free speech, pursued decades of progressive policies that eroded strength, and left the continent too weak to robustly defend the West. European leaders dismissed his criticism as “absurd” and “not acceptable.”

Yet the war against Iran has underscored Vance’s point.

The European Union has long-standing grievances against Tehran: decades of terrorism on European soil. Tehran has also taken numerous European visitors as hostages over the years, using them as leverage to extract concessions such as prisoner swaps, debt repayments, and asset releases. A striking example is the case of British-Iranian Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who was detained in 2016 and was only freed in 2022 after the UK government repaid a long-standing debt of nearly £400 million.

Facing this persistent threat, Europe had a clear opportunity to unite with allies against a common foe. Instead, major nations delivered lackluster, divided responses — slow, sidelined, or obstructive.

Blurb:

G7 nations said on Monday they were prepared to implement “necessary measures” in response to surging global oil prices but stopped short of committing to release emergency reserves, despite crude prices briefly surpassing $119 a barrel as the U.S.-Israel war on Iran continues.

“We are not there yet,” French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told reporters in Brussels, after hosting a teleconference meeting of G7 finance ministers.

A final statement following the meeting said the ministers “will continue to closely monitor the situation and developments in the energy markets and will meet as needed to exchange information and to coordinate within the G7 and with international partners.”

“We stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global supply of energy such as stockpile release,” it added.

Oil prices hit their highest levels since mid‑2022 on Monday, propelled by fears of prolonged shipping disruption and reduced output from some major producers wary of the conflict escalating. However, the market reversed late in the day, with benchmarks falling below $90 a barrel, after President Donald Trump told CBS News that the war was “pretty much” complete.

Blurb:

Kristen Welker’s softball Sunday interview on NBC with the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi reminded everyone again of an anti-American double standard. The liberals inside newsrooms put enormous pressure on interviewers to question Trump fiercely, while representatives of mass-murdering Islamist regimes get open-ended softballs.

Blurb:

One person has been killed in an Iranian attack in Bahrain, as regional countries including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates intercept drones and missiles from Iran.

A 29-year-old woman was killed and eight people injured when a residential building in Bahrain’s capital Manama was hit, the country’s Ministry of Interior said on Tuesday.

The attack came after Bahrain’s Ministry of Health reported on Monday that two people, including several children, were wounded in an Iranian drone attack on the island of Sitra, south of Manama. Bahrain said late on Monday that its air defences had intercepted and destroyed 102 missiles and 173 drones launched as “Iranian aggression” on the kingdom.

In a statement, the General Command of the Bahrain Defence Force described the attack as a “sinful Iranian aggression”.

Blurb:

During Monday’s CNN This Morning, panelist Susan Page of USA Today suggested President Trump missed an opportunity to negotiate with Iran after President Masoud Pezeshkian made a video statement on Saturday as a pledge to Gulf countries that they would stop attacks against them.

Spoiler alert: the attacks against gulf countries had not stopped since Pezeshkian has little to no power over the IRGC, something CNN contributor Brett McGurk pointed out earlier in the panel segment.

McGurk, while he reminded the viewers that Pezeshkian was an “accidental president,” pointed out the IRGC’s rejection of the president:

So, Pezeshkian is known as being, you know, somewhat of a moderate guy. That word is overused, but he’s not really kind of totally aligned with the real hardliners. He came out with a statement on Saturday morning apologizing to gulf states, saying, we’re going to stop these attacks, offering an off ramp, even. And President Trump then put out a statement saying that, you – they’re basically surrendering when it comes to the Middle East states but we’re going to continue the attacks. In any case, as soon as Pezeshkian spoke, within an hour or so, the hardline in Iran, the revolutionary guards said that is not our policy. And attacks against the gulf continued.

Blurb:

According to CNN’s Data Analyst Harry Enten, you should not be surprised that people who have served in the military largely approve of the U.S. strikes on Iran when compared to voters overall.

He cites a Fox News Poll:

Among Republicans, more than 8 in 10 approve of the current U.S. use of force, while only 6 in 10 say the president’s actions on Iran are making the U.S. safer.

Nearly 8 in 10 Democrats disapprove of the U.S. strikes and think things are less safe because of Trump’s performance, while 6 in 10 or more independents think the same on both counts.

Among voters who have served in the military, 59% approve of the U.S. strikes on Iran (39% disapprove). Compared to voters overall, who say the U.S. is less safe by a wide margin, veterans are more closely divided on the question of whether Trump’s actions have made the country safer (37%) or less safe (44%).

Blurb:

Restaurants in Mumbai are switching to electric induction stoves for staff meals and looking to tweak menus to conserve gas amid a shortage commercial LPG cylinders that threatens to disrupt their business.

While the government on Tuesday issued an order to regulate supply of natural gas to essential sectors, restaurants say there is no clarity on availability of the commercial cylinders.

As a consequence, as many as 50 per cent of eateries in Mumbai may have to temporarily shut shop, say executives of industry associations.

“We have started using electric induction stove to prepare staff meals, tea and rice based dishes. Some restaurants are looking to restrict their menus,” said Pranav Rungta, vice president of National Restaurant Association of India and owner of Nksha restaurant in Mumbai.

Blurb:

The skies in northern Iran were dark with smoke on 8 March as the US and Israeli bombing campaign against the country continued, and black rain even fell on the capital Tehran.

The catastrophic scenes have raised concerns about threats to civilian health in Iran and other countries.

Overnight on 7 and 8 March, US-Israeli strikes hit Iran’s oil facilities for the first time since the war started a little over a week ago, igniting large fires in four oil storage facilities and an oil transfer centre in Tehran and the nearby Alborz province.

Flames loomed over Tehran in the night, and black smoke billowed over the city during the day. Soot covered the streets and cars and filled up people’s balconies. Most alarmingly, thick black raindrops fell onto roofs and streets in the capital, which until recently was experiencing a long drought.

 

Blurb:

Khuzestan is Iran’s most oil-rich and ethnically diverse province — and the Arabs there have finally had it up to here with the theocrats who run things in Tehran. Whoever they are today, that is.

In a daring new statement, the Khuzestan Arab Tribes Assembly this week calling for “a free, democratic, and federal Iran,” and that they “firmly believe that the Islamic Republic’s system has violated the rights of the people of Iran.”

While Khuzestan borders Iraq and is roughly one-third Arab, the assembly called the province the “beating heart of Iran” and emphasized “the protection of Iran’s territorial integrity and reject any separatist or divisive project that harms the homeland of Iran.”

“We see ourselves in the transitional phase from the current repressive regime toward a free, democratic, and federal Iran. We can play a constructive role alongside other compatriots in building a prosperous and united Iran.”

Blurb:

A chilling new signal believed to be tied to Iran has begun appearing across the radio spectrum in Europe, with shortwave listeners in the United Kingdom reporting mysterious encrypted broadcasts shortly after the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Amateur radio enthusiasts say the transmissions resemble a classic “numbers station,” a type of coded broadcast historically associated with espionage and covert intelligence operations.

The signal has been designated “V32” by the monitoring group ENIGMA2000, which tracks suspected intelligence transmissions around the world.

Shortwave listeners say the station broadcasts strings of encrypted numbers late at night and early in the evening.

The transmissions have reportedly been heard clearly across the United Kingdom and parts of Europe, with signals bouncing off the ionosphere and appearing on the frequency 7910 kHz (7.910 MHz) in Upper Sideband mode.

Monitors have described the broadcast as a male voice, possibly synthetic, speaking in Farsi while reading out sequences of numbers.

Blurb:

Murderous Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s son has succeeded his father, and we can only hope fervently that he will soon follow his father to eternal punishment.

The news that Iran’s Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader of Iran appeared on Iranian state media Sunday afternoon, as relayed by the Jerusalem Post. Mojtaba was only a mid-ranking Islamic cleric before now, according to the Israeli outlet, but as the son of the decades-long dictator of the nation he had many powerful ties, including to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the terrorist group that acts as the government’s enforcers and helps orchestrate overseas terrorism. Israel has vowed to eliminate any supreme leader of Iran going forward.

Notably, it was the IRGC that slaughtered 40,000+ protesters in Iran during the recent mass protests against the Islamic regime. The new boss is the same as the old boss.

The Jerusalem Post explained:

Although Iran’s ruling ideology frowns on the principle of hereditary succession, he has a powerful following within the IRGC, including close ties to IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi, former head of IRGC intelligence Hossein Taeb, and political figures, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, as well as his dead father’s still-influential office.

Blurb:

Russia has reportedly provided Iran with information that could help the regime target U.S. military assets across the Middle East, a development that adds a dangerous new layer to a war that is already widening by the day.

U.S. intelligence officials believe Moscow passed along information that could be used against American warships, aircraft and other military positions in the region. The officials told The Associated Press there is no indication Russia is directly ordering Tehran how to use the information, but the disclosure still marks the clearest sign yet that Moscow may be trying to assist Iran as the conflict intensifies.

The report lands as U.S. and Israeli forces continue pounding Iranian targets and as Tehran keeps launching retaliatory attacks against American positions and U.S. partners in the Gulf.

The White House believes the United States is “well on its way” toward controlling Iranian airspace and expects its core military objectives could be completed within four to six weeks. President Donald Trump has also taken a harder public line, demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender” as the campaign moves deeper into its second week.

Blurb:

There are times when the Elitist Media Sunday shows will staff their talking head panels in such a way so as to at least present the pretense of viewpoint diversity. Not so today, with the war in Iran being the focal point of coverage on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos.

Watch as ABC’s Chief White House Correspondent Mary Bruce, at her Mary Bruciest, dumps all over the ongoing operation and its underlying rationale:

MARTHA RADDATZ: Mary, I want to start with you. You’ve heard the explanation from the president and his cabinet about why they started this war, why it will end, and how. But is anything clearer now?

MARY BRUCE:  Martha, the explanations from this administration and the president have been absolutely head-spinning this week. I mean, I think the clearest explanation from the president is probably the broadest at this point, which is him saying that this was an evil regime and that something had to be done. He said, quote, “Somebody had to do it”.

But we have heard vastly different explanations and contradictions about why now, was — what was the imminent threat? The president said it was his opinion — quote, “his opinion” — that Iran was going to strike first. But we have seen no evidence of that and they’ve offered wildly different explanations for what comes next.

Blurb:

Degala, Iraq — A rusted metal gate and a wind-torn flag mark the entrance to the Kurdistan Freedom Party’s base outside the northern Iraqi city of Erbil.

An anti-aircraft gun sits on the plateau behind the encampment, which consists of rows of cinder-block buildings that back onto scrubland hills.

A Kurdish fighter dressed in camo fatigues, scarf and running shoes, Ali Mahmoud Awara was nervous about being there, given the war next door in Iran.

“All of our bases have been targeted by the Iranians,” he said.

Blurb:

Since 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has haunted the U.S. with its hostage-taking, support of terrorism around the globe, threats to acquire nuclear weapons and vaporize Israel, and attempts to assassinate Donald Trump.

Despite decades of presidential talking, the current commander in chief is the first one to really make a serious move to neutralize the threat posed by Iran, and Operation Epic Fury has wiped out virtually their entire leadership structure. The final outcome is as yet unknown, but I think it’s safe to say that “action has been taken.”

But there’s another country that’s bedeviled us even longer: the República de Cuba.

Sitting just 90 miles off our shores, the communist regime was birthed by the late dictator Fidel Castro in 1959 following a revolution, and it almost brought us a nuclear-infused World War 3 with the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. In 1980, meanwhile, Castro sent some of the Caribbean country’s most violent, depraved criminals to Florida in the Mariel Boatlift.

Blurb:

The Israeli Air Force is relentlessly destroying the Islamic Republic’s critical and organizational infrastructure. Creating the conditions for the courageous Iranian people to overthrow the current murderous regime.

Blurb:

President Donald Trump is refusing to rule out the possibility of deploying U.S. ground forces in Iran as the ongoing military operation against the regime enters its second week.

The question of ground troops comes amid ongoing airstrikes that have significantly degraded Iran’s military capabilities, though Tehran continues to launch retaliatory attacks. The conflict, dubbed Operation Epic Fury by the U.S. and Operation Lion’s Roar by Israel, began on February 28, 2026, with coordinated strikes aimed at destroying Iran’s military infrastructure and prompting regime change.

Administration officials have stated that Tehran continued to enrich uranium and threatened to build upwards of 11 nuclear weapons, which prompted the military action. President Trump has stated that completely eliminating Iran’s nuclear program is a stated goal of the operation.

While speaking with reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday, Trump was asked about the possibility of deploying ground troops as part of the operation. After emphasizing the success of current aerial operations, Trump did not rule out boots on the ground in the future. “I would say if we ever did that, they would be so decimated that they wouldn’t be able to fight at the ground level,” he said.